Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

6

Philip Broberg

Edmonton Oilers Defense

Twenty-three games at 21, and 66 per cent of his attempts came from beyond forty feet.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22EDM23123-88000293.513:28
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—23123-88000293.513:28

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

1 goal and 2 assists in 23 games — a minus-8 and 8 penalty minutes at 13:28 a night.

Twenty-three games is far short of the 40 this book requires, so there is no peer group. 50.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 284 minutes — under five hours of hockey. His ice went 10-17 against an expectation of 11.13-11.04, six goals worse against than the chances promised, which at that sample is a goaltender and not a defenceman.

One playoff game.

The Finesse Game

Twenty-nine shots in twenty-three games. The median travels 49 feet, 2 per cent came from inside twenty and 66 per cent from beyond forty — a point shot and nothing else, which is what a 20-year-old gets on the third pair.

85.8 mph off the stick, which is soft, on a sample of shifts too small to say whether that is him.

No power-play time. Three points in twenty-three games.

The Physical Game

6-4 and 210, which is large, and eight penalty minutes in twenty-three games.

21.1 mph top speed and 1.92 miles a game, both very low. Both are also exactly what thirteen minutes a night in twenty-three appearances produces: a top speed is the fastest a man happened to go, and a quarter of a season is a quarter of the chances to set a high one. Nothing here should be read as a verdict on how he skates.

44.3 per cent of his even-strength time was spent in the attacking zone, which is high and belongs mostly to the club.

The Intangibles

Eighth overall in 2019, and twenty-three NHL games at 21.

He is a left-shot defenceman on a club whose left side is Darnell Nurse at twenty-five minutes and Brett Kulak at eighteen, with Ryan Murray and Markus Niemeläinen behind them. There is no minute for him and there is no argument for taking one from anyone.

Two hundred and eighty-four minutes is the whole of the NHL record and this book will not build a paragraph on it. What can be said is that the club has spent two seasons keeping him at the edge of the lineup rather than in it, which is a decision, and the data does not say whether it is the right one.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 284 minutes

Expected goals
50.2%
58th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.8%
77th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 10 for, 17 against. Expected: 11.1 and 11.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
8th
Numbers
58th

The numbers rank him 50 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 49 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 23 games

Top speed
21.1 mph
31st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.61 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.92 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
85.8 mph
19th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 284 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
EDM took 51.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.2% — 1.1 below the club he did it on.
The role
284 minutes at five-on-five — 7th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Kailer Yamamoto41.9%54.1%48.7%
Connor McDavid50.1%50.2%57.9%
Cody Ceci49.9%50.3%51.5%

41.9% together, 54.1% for him apart and 48.7% for Yamamoto apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

41 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 1 of them goals. His median goal came from 30 feet. 2% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 66% from beyond forty.