Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

12

Nick Bonino

New York Rangers Center

Seven bursts above twenty miles an hour in a whole season, and the 8th percentile of attacking-zone ice time.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2009-10ANA911206100147.114:13
2010-11ANA26000-34000230.09:48
2011-12ANA5051318+18000637.912:29
2012-13ANA275813-381003713.515:53
2013-14ANA77222749+142270215913.816:14
2014-15VAN75152439+72210614910.116:55
2015-16PIT6392029+1331210979.315:50
2016-17PIT80181937-51661114212.716:39
2017-18NSH71121325+4200008314.515:38
2018-19NSH81171835+271830111814.416:18
2019-20NSH67181735+171610310417.316:31
2020-21MIN551016260263026615.214:51
2021-22SJS80161026-251831013711.716:42
2022-23SJS/PIT6210919-5280009111.015:54
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—823158195353+4224328315128312.315:45

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

10 goals and 9 assists in 62 games — 19 points — for Pittsburgh, at 15:54 a night. Minus-5, 91 shots at 11.0 per cent, 28 penalty minutes.

49.1 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 44th percentile, with his ice at 31-32 against an expectation of 27.76-28.76 across 747 minutes.

He started 41.2 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 15th percentile: 197 attacking draws against 281. The offensive-zone ice-time figure agrees — 38.6 per cent, the 8th percentile — and the two are counting different things, which is why it is worth having both.

Fourteen seasons, 823 games, 353 points, seven organisations.

The Finesse Game

91 shots at a median of 23 feet, and ten goals.

Inside twenty: 39 shots on goal and 7 goals, 17.95 per cent, which is the league forward rate. From twenty to forty: 42 shots and 5 goals, 11.90 per cent, also the league rate. Beyond forty: 13 shots and none.

An exactly average finisher from both useful ranges at thirty-five, which is a more respectable line than the point total suggests.

69 wrist shots and 16 tip-ins out of 118 tracked attempts, three slap. 84.3 mph at the 9th percentile.

195 career assists against 158 goals. The passing is what has kept him employed through seven organisations.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 198, with 28 penalty minutes.

Bursts above twenty miles an hour: seven, in sixty-two games — 0.1 a game, the 2nd percentile of the league. Top speed 21.6 mph, the 19th; 2.28 miles a game, the 30th.

Seven sprints in a season is close to the floor of what this book measures, and it is what a thirty-five-year-old defensive centre has left.

He kills penalties, takes the draw in his own end, and positions himself so that the sprint is never necessary. The 15th-percentile deployment is a coaching staff’s statement that he can still do it.

There is no physical game to speak of and there has not been for years.

The Intangibles

One hundred and seventy-third overall in 2007, the sixth round, and 823 games across Anaheim, Vancouver, Pittsburgh, Nashville, Minnesota, San Jose and Pittsburgh again.

Two Stanley Cups in Pittsburgh and a reputation as the third-line centre a contender adds in March.

He is thirty-five and the tracking says the legs have gone. What is left is the reading of the play and the faceoff circle, and a fourteenth season on a fourth line is the market’s estimate of how much longer that is worth a roster spot.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “He kills penalties, takes the draw in his own end, and positions himself so that the sprint is never necessary.”

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “195 career assists against 158 goals. The passing is what has kept him employed through seven organisations.”

  • punishinghe lacks it· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “There is no physical game to speak of and there has not been for years.”

  • transitionhe lacks it· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “Seven sprints in a season is close to the floor of what this book measures, and it is what a thirty-five-year-old defensive centre has left.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 747 minutes

Expected goals
49.1%
45th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
45%
17th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 31 for, 32 against. Expected: 27.8 and 28.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
24th
Numbers
45th

The numbers rank him 21 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 60 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 62 games

Top speed
21.6 mph
29th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.11 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.28 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
84.3 mph
33rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 with SJS · 728 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
PIT took 53.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.1% — 3.9 below the club he did it on.
The role
747 minutes at five-on-five — 34th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Nico Sturm48.2%49.8%46.3%
Matt Benning42.5%52.1%46.7%
Marc-Edouard Vlasic50.2%48.6%49.9%

48.2% together, 49.8% for him apart and 46.3% for Sturm apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

121 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 12 of them goals. His median goal came from 17 feet. 42% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 13% from beyond forty.