Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

33

Matt Benning

San Jose Sharks Defense

Twenty-three assists, one goal, and the third-hardest zone starts in this book.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17EDM6231215+829100694.316:37
2017-18EDM7361521+5490021115.417:17
2018-19EDM7051217+1133000945.314:57
2019-20EDM43178+815000382.613:14
2020-21NSH53134-130000432.316:20
2021-22NSH6501111-2439000610.016:20
2022-23SJS7712324-1826000581.719:47
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—4431783100-112211024743.616:37

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

1 goal and 23 assists in 77 games — 24 points — at 19:47 a night. Minus-18, 58 shots at 1.7 per cent, 26 penalty minutes, no power-play points.

24 points is a career high by three, and 23 assists is a career high by eight.

45.9 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five across 1,246 minutes, the 20th percentile, with his ice at 46-58 against an expectation of 43.83-51.70.

He started 29.4 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone. That is the 3rd percentile, and the sixteenth-lowest share of the 525 skaters in this book: 202 attacking draws against 486 defensive ones. Every one of the fifteen men below him is a forward. No defenceman in this book was sent out in worse circumstances more often, and Benning played twenty minutes a night doing it.

That is the number to keep from this file. A minus-18 out of the hardest deployment given to any defenceman in this book, on the club with the worst goaltending in the league, is a better season than the counting line suggests.

The Finesse Game

58 shots at a median of 48 feet, with 64 per cent of his attempts from beyond forty and 2 per cent from inside twenty.

Beyond forty feet: 37 shots on goal and one goal, 2.70 per cent, below the league rate for defencemen of 3.17. From twenty to forty: 19 shots and none. Inside twenty: two shots and none.

One goal from fifty-eight shots, and a 1.7 per cent shooting percentage against a career 3.6.

87 tracked attempts, 57 of them wrist shots and 14 slap. 96.5 mph at the 86th percentile — a hard shot he takes eighty-seven times a season.

The 23 assists are the interesting number. A defenceman who starts three shifts in ten in the attacking zone and still records 23 assists is moving the puck out cleanly, and that is the whole of his offensive contribution: the first pass, and nothing after it.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 220 pounds. Top speed 22.1 mph at the 40th percentile, 0.5 bursts above twenty a game at the 25th, 2.77 miles a game at the 66th.

A heavy defenceman with ordinary feet, covering a normal amount of ground for twenty minutes a night. There is nothing in the tracking that stands out and nothing that explains the deployment except that the coach trusted him with it.

He defends with weight: he takes the body at the net front and in the corners, and at 220 pounds the men he is defending do not get to the second chance.

26 penalty minutes in 77 games and 221 in 443 career games — half a minute a game, which for a defenceman who plays this way says the contact is well-timed rather than desperate.

The Intangibles

A hundred and seventy-fifth overall in 2012, the sixth round, seven seasons, 443 games, 100 points across Edmonton, Nashville and San Jose.

17 goals in seven years, and 83 assists. The career has been a third-pair defenceman’s until this season, when a rebuilding club gave him twenty minutes a night and the hardest starts in the league and he did not visibly fall over.

He is twenty-nine. What the file says is that a sixth-round pick has made himself into a second-pair defenceman by being useful in the half of the rink nobody wants, and that the counting line will never show it.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    29% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 1st percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He defends with weight: he takes the body at the net front and in the corners, and at 220 pounds the men he is defending do not get to the second chance.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,246 minutes

Expected goals
45.9%
27th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
44.9%
17th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 46 for, 58 against. Expected: 43.8 and 51.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
48th
Numbers
27th

The report ranks him 21 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 65 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 77 games

Top speed
22.1 mph
69th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.51 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.77 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
96.5 mph
81st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.0

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 1246 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
SJS took 48.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 45.9% — 2.6 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 1,246 minutes at five-on-five — 87th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Marc-Edouard Vlasic49.6%41.3%50.5%
Logan Couture47.0%45.4%49.6%
Mario Ferraro38.4%48.5%47.6%

49.6% together, 41.3% for him apart and 50.5% for Vlasic apart. He was worse away from Vlasic, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Vlasic did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

86 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 1 of them goals. His median goal came from 53 feet. 7% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 67% from beyond forty.