Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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44

Marc-Edouard Vlasic

San Jose Sharks Defense

1,239 games, one goal, and not a single one from outside twenty feet.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2006-07SJS8132326+1318200664.522:12
2007-08SJS8221214-1224100722.821:37
2008-09SJS8263036+15423011045.823:54
2009-10SJS6431316+2133100744.022:05
2010-11SJS8041418+14180021163.520:52
2011-12SJS8241923+11400011193.423:09
2012-13SJS48347+529000595.120:49
2013-14SJS8151924+31380101383.620:43
2014-15SJS7091423+1223003989.222:07
2015-16SJS6783139+15482001166.923:08
2016-17SJS7562228+4351021444.221:14
2017-18SJS81112132+9341021616.822:33
2018-19SJS7232225-6100001003.021:03
2019-20SJS7051015-1010011746.820:18
2020-21SJS51156-88000372.717:31
2021-22SJS7531114-2218000634.815:13
2022-23SJS7811718-1416000671.517:28
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—123977287364+784441121216084.821:01

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

1 goal and 17 assists in 78 games — 18 points — at 17:28 a night. Minus-14, 67 shots at 1.5 per cent, 16 penalty minutes.

50 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five across 1,146 minutes, the 45th percentile — the best chance share of any San Jose defenceman — with his ice at 45-61 against an expectation of 46.83-46.91. Fourteen goals worse than the chances at the defensive end, on a club whose goaltending was the worst in the league.

He started 35.8 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 8th percentile: 234 attacking draws against 420 defensive ones. At thirty-six, on a club with nothing to protect, he is still the defenceman sent out for the shift that starts in his own end.

The Finesse Game

67 shots at a median of 49 feet, with 60 per cent of his attempts from beyond forty.

Beyond forty feet: 40 shots on goal, no goals. From twenty to forty: 13 shots, no goals. Inside twenty: 10 shots and one goal. The single goal of his season came from close range, and 53 shots on goal from outside twenty feet produced nothing.

A 1.5 per cent shooting percentage against a career 4.8, which is itself among the lowest figures a thousand-game defenceman has ever carried into a book like this one.

114 tracked attempts, 26 of them slap shots — a 22.8 per cent share, which is the second-highest on this blue line and returned exactly nothing from range.

That is now five defencemen across two consecutive chapters whose slap-shot share predicted nothing about their long-range conversion. 93.0 mph at the 64th percentile.

The first pass is the skill and always has been: short, early, to the near winger, with no interest whatever in carrying it.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 205 pounds. 0.3 bursts above twenty miles an hour a game, the 15th percentile, on 2.29 miles a game at the 31st, at a top speed of 22.4 mph at the 56th.

He has one gear left and does not need a second one, because the game is played from position: he takes the inside lane, angles the puck-carrier to the wall, and never chases.

16 penalty minutes in 78 games. 444 penalty minutes in 1,239 career games — the eighth-lowest rate of any defenceman in this book with eight hundred games, and it is the truest single measure of the way he plays — he is almost never beaten badly enough to have to foul.

He blocks shots and defends the front of his net, and at thirty-six that is what is left of a game that was never built on speed.

The Intangibles

Thirty-fifth overall in 2005, the second round, seventeen seasons, 1,239 games, 364 points, all of them in San Jose.

77 goals in seventeen years. He is one of a handful of defencemen in this book with a thousand games, and every one of them was played here.

He is thirty-six on a roster that has just traded Erik Karlsson and is three years into a rebuild. The 45th-percentile chance share out of the 8th percentile of zone starts is a genuinely good season and it is nearly irrelevant to where the club is going.

What the file is for is the record: a defensive defenceman who played seventeen seasons at one address, took 444 penalty minutes doing it, and scored 77 goals.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.21 penalty minutes a game over 78, 9th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • durable· was available

    78 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    36% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 4th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • shot-blockera strength· gets in front of it

    “He blocks shots and defends the front of his net, and at thirty-six that is what is left of a game that was never built on speed.”

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “He has one gear left and does not need a second one, because the game is played from position: he takes the inside lane, angles the puck-carrier to the wall, and never chases.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,146 minutes

Expected goals
50%
52nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47.6%
35th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 45 for, 61 against. Expected: 46.8 and 46.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
20th
Numbers
52nd

The numbers rank him 32 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 59 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 78 games

Top speed
22.4 mph
81st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.35 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.29 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
93.0 mph
55th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.0

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 1146 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
SJS took 48.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.0% — 1.5 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 1,146 minutes at five-on-five — 78th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Matt Benning49.6%50.5%41.3%
Logan Couture49.9%50.0%48.4%
Alexander Barabanov57.3%47.4%45.6%

49.6% together, 50.5% for him apart and 41.3% for Benning apart. Benning was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Benning than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

110 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 1 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 14% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 67% from beyond forty.