Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

13

Mathew Barzal

New York Islanders Center

Three hundred and fourteen assists in 500 games, and 128 goals.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17NYI2000-2600009:45
2017-18NYI82226385+13050417012.917:46
2018-19NYI82184462-54630317910.117:55
2019-20NYI68194160+54440217111.120:03
2020-21NYI55172845+154810113412.718:43
2021-22NYI73154459-15181011619.318:01
2022-23NYI58143751+52240513910.118:43
2023-24NYI80235780-4345042409.620:08
2024-25 so far
Career500128314442024823020119410.718:42

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

80 games, 23 goals and 57 assists for 80 points, 5 on the power play, 34 penalty minutes, 20:08 a night and minus-4. He took 52.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,284 minutes, the 74th percentile, and his ice went 62-54 against an expectation of 62.42-55.88.

Level with the chances at one end and two fewer conceded than they called for at the other. Eighty points is the best total on a club that finished twenty-second in scoring.

The Finesse Game

320 attempts at a median of 27 feet with 32 per cent from inside 20, 240 of them on goal, converted at 9.6 per cent against a career 10.72.

314 career assists in 500 games against 128 goals. That ratio is the whole player: he is the fastest man on this roster, carries the puck through the neutral zone at a speed nobody else here can, and then looks for a pass. Twenty-three goals is about the ceiling.

The Physical Game

He is 6-1 and 186 and does not play a physical game.

34 penalty minutes in 80 games is a low rate and most of it is a stick. He does not forecheck by force, does not win the wall, and is moved off the puck by anybody who reaches him.

The Intangibles

Sixteenth overall in 2015 out of Coquitlam, eight seasons, 500 games and 442 points, all of it for one organisation.

He is 27 and the club has given him twenty minutes a night for six years. On a roster that plays more five-on-five than anybody in the league, the one man who can carry a puck through a neutral zone matters more than the point total says.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,284 minutes

Expected goals
52.8%
74th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.8%
70th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 62 for, 54 against. Expected: 62.4 and 55.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
89th
Numbers
74th

The two rank him within 15 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 415 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 75 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1284 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
NYI took 49.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.8% — 3.7 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,284 minutes at five-on-five — 89th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Bo Horvat55.2%44.9%44.6%
Anders Lee54.4%51.1%52.1%
Noah Dobson51.5%53.8%48.4%

55.2% together, 44.9% for him apart and 44.6% for Horvat apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

320 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 23 of them goals. His median goal came from 18 feet. 33% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 17% from beyond forty.