Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2024-25 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

13

Mathew Barzal

New York Islanders Center

Three hundred and fourteen assists in 500 games, and 128 goals.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17NYI2000-260000—9:45
2017-18NYI82226385+13050417012.917:46
2018-19NYI82184462-54630317910.117:55
2019-20NYI68194160+54440217111.120:03
2020-21NYI55172845+154810113412.718:43
2021-22NYI73154459-15181011619.318:01
2022-23NYI58143751+52240513910.118:43
2023-24NYI80235780-4345042409.620:08
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—500128314442024823020119410.718:42

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

80 games, 23 goals and 57 assists for 80 points, 5 on the power play, 34 penalty minutes, 20:08 a night and minus-4. He took 52.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,284 minutes, the 74th percentile, and his ice went 62-54 against an expectation of 62.42-55.88.

Level with the chances at one end and two fewer conceded than they called for at the other. Eighty points is the best total on a club that finished twenty-second in scoring.

The Finesse Game

320 attempts at a median of 27 feet with 32 per cent from inside 20, 240 of them on goal, converted at 9.6 per cent against a career 10.72.

314 career assists in 500 games against 128 goals. That ratio is the whole player: he is the fastest man on this roster, carries the puck through the neutral zone at a speed nobody else here can, and then looks for a pass. Twenty-three goals is about the ceiling.

The Physical Game

He is 6-1 and 186 and does not play a physical game.

34 penalty minutes in 80 games is a low rate and most of it is a stick. He does not forecheck by force, does not win the wall, and is moved off the puck by anybody who reaches him.

The Intangibles

Sixteenth overall in 2015 out of Coquitlam, eight seasons, 500 games and 442 points, all of it for one organisation.

He is 27 and the club has given him twenty minutes a night for six years. On a roster that plays more five-on-five than anybody in the league, the one man who can carry a puck through a neutral zone matters more than the point total says.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    80 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • workhorse· carries the load at even strength

    16:03 a game at five-on-five, 98th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.78) · 58% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “That ratio is the whole player: he is the fastest man on this roster, carries the puck through the neutral zone at a speed nobody else here can, and then looks for a pass.”

  • playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “314 career assists in 500 games against 128 goals.”

  • punishinghe lacks it· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He is 6-1 and 186 and does not play a physical game.”

  • forechecks-aggressivelyhe lacks it· first man in, and on the puck

    “He does not forecheck by force, does not win the wall, and is moved off the puck by anybody who reaches him.”

  • wins-the-wallhe lacks it· the corners and below the goal line

    “He does not forecheck by force, does not win the wall, and is moved off the puck by anybody who reaches him.”

  • hard-to-movehe lacks it· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand

    “He does not forecheck by force, does not win the wall, and is moved off the puck by anybody who reaches him.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 1,284 minutes

Expected goals
52.8%
74th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.8%
70th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 62 for, 54 against. Expected: 62.4 and 55.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
76th
Numbers
74th

The two rank him within 2 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 75 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 80 games

Top speed
23.5 mph
97th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
4.21 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.34 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
92.8 mph
84th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 1284 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
NYI took 49.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.8% — 3.7 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,284 minutes at five-on-five — 89th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Bo Horvat55.2%44.9%44.6%
Anders Lee54.4%51.1%52.1%
Noah Dobson51.5%53.8%48.4%

55.2% together, 44.9% for him apart and 44.6% for Horvat apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

320 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 23 of them goals. His median goal came from 18 feet. 33% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 17% from beyond forty.