This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Matias Maccelli
Arizona Coyotes Left Wing
Thirty-eight assists on eleven goals, from a fourth-round pick, in a first full season.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | ARI | 23 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 4.8 | 14:12 |
| 2022-23 | ARI | 64 | 11 | 38 | 49 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 61 | 18.0 | 15:41 |
| 2023-24 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 87 | 12 | 43 | 55 | -10 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 82 | 14.6 | 15:17 |
This Season So Far
The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
11 goals and 38 assists in 64 games — 49 points at 15:41 a night, even, on only 61 shots, converting at 18.03 per cent, and 18 penalty minutes.
Forty-nine points in a first full season from a fourth-round pick, and a plus-minus of exactly zero on a club outscored by 71. 49.3 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 837 minutes, the 46th percentile; his ice went 36-33 against an expectation of 32.42-33.31.
The Finesse Game
Thirty-eight assists against eleven goals is one of the most lopsided ratios in the league, and 61 shots in 64 games is the reason. He does not shoot. He arrives in a shooting position, waits for the goaltender to commit, and passes across the crease instead.
61 attempts at a median of 30 feet, converting at 18.03 per cent, which on that volume is noise rather than a finishing talent. 43 assists in 87 career games is the number that describes him, and it is genuinely rare.
The Physical Game
5-11 and 187 and there is nothing physical here — 18 penalty minutes in 64 games, and he is separated from the puck by any defenceman who reaches him.
The skating is what makes the passing possible: 23.1 mph at the 89th percentile. He is quick enough to buy the extra half-second the play needs, and the whole game is built on arriving with time rather than with force.
The Intangibles
Ninety-eighth overall in 2019, out of Finland, and a fourth-round pick who was a point-per-game player in the American League before he arrived.
He is 23. The concern is the one every pass-first winger of this size carries: he is playing on a club with no defensive structure, which flatters a man who does not defend, and the assists depend entirely on somebody being there to finish. Keller is; the rest of the roster mostly is not.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
- he lacks itraised, and he does not have it
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
“He arrives in a shooting position, waits for the goaltender to commit, and passes across the crease instead.”
“he is separated from the puck by any defenceman who reaches him”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 837 minutes
- Expected goals
- 49.3%
- 46th pct
- Shot attempts
- 45.8%
- 21st pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 36 for, 33 against. Expected: 32.4 and 33.3.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe report ranks him 30 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 58 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 65 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Usual linemates
2022-23 · 837 minutes at five-on-five
- Jack McBain31%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2022-23
- The club
- ARI took 45.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.3% — 3.8 above the club he did it on.
- The role
- Third line, 837 minutes at five-on-five — 42nd percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lawson Crouse | 52.4% | 40.7% | 43.2% |
| Nick Bjugstad | 51.4% | 47.6% | 47.6% |
| J.J. Moser | 43.7% | 53.3% | 45.7% |
52.4% together, 40.7% for him apart and 43.2% for Crouse apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
85 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 11 of them goals. His median goal came from 17 feet. 36% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 21% from beyond forty.