This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Jack McBain
Arizona Coyotes Center
Six-foot-four, sixty-four penalty minutes, and the sixth percentile in shot velocity.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | ARI | 10 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 15.4 | 14:11 |
| 2022-23 | ARI | 82 | 12 | 14 | 26 | -8 | 64 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 85 | 14.1 | 13:59 |
| 2023-24 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 92 | 14 | 15 | 29 | -14 | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 98 | 14.3 | 14:00 |
This Season So Far
The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
12 goals and 14 assists in 82 games — 26 points at 13:59 a night, minus-8, on 85 shots, converting at 14.12 per cent, and 64 penalty minutes.
41.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 947 minutes, the 7th percentile, starting 38 per cent of his shifts in the attacking end at the 5th. His ice went 31-43 against an expectation of 29.84-41.96, which is close enough to say the shifts were what the numbers say.
A first full season at twenty-three.
The Finesse Game
85 attempts at a median of 20 feet with 49 per cent from inside 20, off a shot measured at 83.2 mph, the 6th percentile.
Twelve goals on 85 shots is 14 per cent, which is a high rate on a soft shot and means the same thing it means for Hayton and Boyd: everything is scored from inside the dots or not at all. 29 points in 92 career games is a fourth-line rate with a third-line body.
The Physical Game
6-4 and 219, and this is the reason he is in the league. He forechecks heavily, he finishes his check, and 70 penalty minutes in 92 career games is the cost of playing that way.
The skating is adequate for the size at 22.3 mph, the 48th percentile. He is not caught from behind and he does not run anybody down either.
The Intangibles
Sixty-third overall in 2018 to Minnesota, and he did three years at Boston College before forcing a trade here rather than signing with the club that drafted him — a route that gives a player unusual leverage and unusual scrutiny.
He is 23. On a club with this little size he will get every chance to become a third-line centre, and the question is entirely whether the hands ever catch up to the frame.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
- durable· was available
82 of 82 games
Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it
“He forechecks heavily, he finishes his check, and 70 penalty minutes in 92 career games is the cost of playing that way.”
“He forechecks heavily, he finishes his check, and 70 penalty minutes in 92 career games is the cost of playing that way.”
“everything is scored from inside the dots or not at all”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 947 minutes
- Expected goals
- 41.6%
- 7th pct
- Shot attempts
- 40.3%
- 2nd pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 31 for, 43 against. Expected: 29.8 and 42.0.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe report ranks him 34 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 58 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 60 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Usual linemates
2022-23 · 947 minutes at five-on-five
- Christian Fischernow DET37%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2022-23
- The club
- ARI took 45.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 41.6% — 3.9 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- Fourth line, 947 minutes at five-on-five — 52nd percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrik Nemeth | 33.5% | 45.7% | 43.9% |
| J.J. Moser | 38.9% | 43.0% | 47.4% |
| Christian Fischer | 40.1% | 42.3% | 44.4% |
33.5% together, 45.7% for him apart and 43.9% for Nemeth apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
118 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 12 of them goals. His median goal came from 12 feet. 49% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 17% from beyond forty.