Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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41

Luke Glendening

Dallas Stars Center

The 10th-lowest ground covered of the 365 forwards the tracking covers and the 22nd-most sprints over 20 mph — short shifts at a dead run.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2013-14DET56167-822000541.813:55
2014-15DET8212618+53410210411.514:43
2015-16DET8181321+446003889.114:35
2016-17DET7431114-1026000764.012:55
2017-18DET6911819-14171228812.513:12
2018-19DET78101323+2150111029.815:47
2019-20DET60639-2914011767.915:21
2020-21DET546915+320001679.014:48
2021-22DAL829716-17150011167.814:07
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—6366676142-6420924117718.614:23

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

9 goals and 7 assists in 82 games — 16 points, a minus-17 and 15 penalty minutes at 14:07 a night, the 35th percentile. 2:13 a night short-handed is the 96th percentile among forwards.

45.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 941 minutes, the 16th percentile. His ice went 19-33 against an expectation of 29.42-35.1 — ten fewer goals for than the chances promised.

Six playoff games without a point.

The Finesse Game

0.86 even-strength points per 60 is the 14th-lowest of the 393 qualified forwards, and not one of his sixteen points came on the power play — 0 per cent, the bottom of the league. 0:02 a night on the man advantage.

6.01 shots per 60 is the 26th percentile and nine goals on 116 is 7.8 per cent, the 18th. 62 per cent of his shots came from the slot, the 86th percentile, at a median of 19 feet, the 12th — he shoots from the right place and there is nothing behind it.

0.726 giveaways per 60 is the 19th-lowest of the 393 qualified forwards. He does not lose the puck, largely because he does not hold it: 0.881 takeaways per 60 is the 21st-lowest. Both ends of the ledger are near empty and that is the job.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 190.

9.28 hits per 60 is the 53rd-most of the 393 qualified forwards and 3.06 blocks is the 92nd percentile. At fourteen minutes a night, against the other side’s best, on the kill.

The skating file is the interesting one. 8.81 miles per 60 is the 10th-lowest of the 365 forwards the tracking covers — and 12.5 bursts over 20 mph per 60 is the 22nd-most. Almost nobody in the league covers less ground and almost nobody sprints more often. That is the measurement of very short shifts taken at a dead run, which is exactly what a fourth-line penalty-killer is for and is not something the eye would have separated from “he works hard”.

0.31 penalties taken per 60 is the 11th percentile and drawn minus taken is plus-0.52, the 88th. Fifteen minutes in eighty-two games from a man who hits that often is the finding.

The Intangibles

Undrafted, and 636 NHL games at 33 across nine seasons, eight of them in Detroit.

A career minus-64 on clubs that lost a great deal, and a minus-17 last season on one that did not.

With Radek Faksa he took 42.9 per cent of the chances over 795 attempts. That is the worst pair on the roster and it was the checking line by design — the chance share of a checking line is supposed to be bad, and forty-three per cent is worse than supposed.

At 33 the arithmetic is unforgiving. The hits, the blocks, the kill and the discipline are all real; the chance share says he loses the argument every night, and there is no year coming in which that improves.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • ordinaryraised, and called ordinary

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    30% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 4th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “which is exactly what a fourth-line penalty-killer is for and is not something the eye would have separated from”

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “At fourteen minutes a night, against the other side's best, on the kill.”

  • undraftedpresent and ordinary· arrived without a pick attached

    “Undrafted, and 636 NHL games at 33 across nine seasons, eight of them in Detroit.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 941 minutes

Expected goals
45.6%
21st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
44.9%
15th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 19 for, 33 against. Expected: 29.4 and 35.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
13th
Numbers
21st

The two rank him within 8 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 52 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 82 games

Top speed
22.8 mph
81st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
2.94 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.07 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
93.7 mph
85th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 941 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
DAL took 51.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 45.6% — 5.4 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 941 minutes at five-on-five — 55th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Radek Faksa42.9%48.6%46.2%
Michael Raffl47.8%43.3%51.6%
Esa Lindell43.8%46.5%50.7%

42.9% together, 48.6% for him apart and 46.2% for Faksa apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

158 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 9 of them goals. His median goal came from 14 feet. 55% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 11% from beyond forty.