Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2025-26 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2025-26 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

29

Jake Oettinger

Dallas Stars Goaltender

36 wins and 19.7 goals saved above the chances faced, 3rd in the league — and the reason this club's record outran its play.

SeasonTeamGPWLOTLGAGAASOSASV%
2020-21DAL291187632.361710.911
2021-22DAL48301511142.5311331.914
2022-23DAL623711111442.3751776.919
2023-24DAL54351441402.7231476.905
2024-25DAL58361841472.5921611.909
2025-26 so far——————————
Career—25114966276082.52126904.912

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

36-18-4 in 58 games, .9088 with a 2.59 average and 2 shutouts on 1,611 shots.

The save percentage is unremarkable and the context is not. Dallas conceded chances at the 27th-best rate in the league at even strength, and the goaltending came in 19.7 goals better than what those chances were worth — 3rd in hockey. The .9088 is a low number in front of a bad defensive season, which is a different achievement from a high number in front of a good one.

The Physical Game

6-6 and 225, and he plays the size properly: deep enough in the crease to take away the top of the net without giving up the angles, and square to the puck more consistently than almost anyone at his height.

The rebound control is genuinely good, which matters on a club that gives up as many second chances as this one. He is quick enough laterally for the frame without being an athlete first, and nothing about the technique looks strained.

The Mental Game

The most settled goaltender of his age group. He has been the starter on a contending club since he was 23, has played in three conference finals, and has never had the visible collapse that most young goaltenders have somewhere.

He absorbs a bad goal without it becoming a bad period. On a team that spent a season being outchanced and winning anyway, that is not a soft observation — it is the mechanism.

The Intangibles

At 26, on a new contract that makes him one of the highest-paid goaltenders in the league, and the club is right to have paid it: the 2024-25 season does not happen with an average goaltender.

The uncomfortable half is that the same fact is a warning. A club that needs 20 goals of goaltending above expectation to be 106 points is a club with a structural problem, and the structural problem is in front of him.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • ordinaryraised, and called ordinary

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • plays-deepa strength· takes the net away by occupying it

    “deep enough in the crease to take away the top of the net without giving up the angles, and square to the puck more consistently than almost anyone at his height”

  • rebound-controla strength· where the second chance ends up

    “The rebound control is genuinely good, which matters on a club that gives up as many second chances as this one.”

  • lateral-recoverypresent and ordinary· post-to-post, and across the slot

    “He is quick enough laterally for the frame without being an athlete first, and nothing about the technique looks strained.”