Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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82

Jordan Oesterle

Detroit Red Wings Defense

No penalties drawn in 45 games and the 3rd-fewest taken of the 202 qualified defencemen — the quietest season on this blue line.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2014-15EDM6011-4000070.014:42
2015-16EDM17055+10000240.021:41
2016-17EDM2000-1000020.017:17
2017-18CHI5551015-118100995.120:31
2018-19ARI7161420-312300777.818:54
2019-20ARI5831013-914000694.317:01
2020-21ARI4311011-1010100382.617:54
2021-22DET45268-74001633.218:17
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—297175673-44485013794.518:39

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

2 goals and 6 assists in 45 games — 8 points, a minus-7 and 4 penalty minutes at 18:17 a night, the 34th percentile among defencemen.

42.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 754 minutes, the 4th percentile — the worst share of any Detroit defenceman and one of the worst in the league. His ice went 28-34 against an expectation of 25.68-35.24.

The Finesse Game

4.59 shots per 60 is the 52nd percentile among defencemen, which is the one ordinary number here. 5 per cent came from the slot, the 8th percentile, and the median travels 48 feet.

Two goals on 63 shots is 3.2 per cent, the 26th percentile. 86.3 mph is the 5th-softest recorded shot of the 192 defencemen the tracking covers — a point shot with nothing on it.

0.63 even-strength points per 60 is the 15th percentile and not one of his eight points came on the power play. He has five power-play goals in 297 NHL games.

0.44 takeaways per 60 is the 5th percentile.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 181, which is the lightest defenceman in this chapter.

1.97 hits per 60 is the 16th percentile among defencemen and 3.21 blocks is the 17th. Almost no contact, at eighteen minutes a night.

Then the striking pair. He drew no penalties at all in 45 games — one of three defencemen in the league to finish a qualified season on zero — and took 0.146 per 60, the 3rd-fewest of 202. Four penalty minutes.

Nothing at all happened around him, which sounds like discipline and reads, next to a 42.2 per cent chance share, more like a man who was never in a position where a penalty was possible.

21.4 mph is the 23rd percentile and 8.71 miles per 60 the 79th. He covers ground at low speed.

The Intangibles

Undrafted, and 297 NHL games at 30 across eight seasons and four organisations. Nobody drafted him and four clubs have kept dressing him anyway, which is what a defenceman is worth when the case for him is that a coach never has to think about the seventh pair.

A career minus-44, largely accumulated in Arizona, and eight points in his best recent season.

The seventh defenceman on a club that finished 31st at suppressing chances. The value is availability and the price of it is 42.2 per cent, which is the lowest figure in this chapter and the reason the ice time will not go up.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • ordinaryraised, and called ordinary

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.09 penalty minutes a game over 45, 2nd percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • undraftedpresent and ordinary· arrived without a pick attached

    “Nobody drafted him and four clubs have kept dressing him anyway, which is what a defenceman is worth when the case for him is that a coach never has to think about the seventh pair.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 754 minutes

Expected goals
42.2%
7th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
45.7%
19th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 28 for, 34 against. Expected: 25.7 and 35.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
0th
Numbers
7th

The two rank him within 7 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 39 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 45 games

Top speed
21.4 mph
44th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.29 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.66 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
86.3 mph
21st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 754 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
DET took 45.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 42.2% — 3.2 below the club he did it on.
The role
754 minutes at five-on-five — 37th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Moritz Seider41.4%42.7%46.4%
Pius Suter42.0%42.2%48.4%
Lucas Raymond46.1%40.7%48.4%

41.4% together, 42.7% for him apart and 46.4% for Seider apart. Seider was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

74 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 2 of them goals. His median goal came from 28 feet. 4% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 65% from beyond forty.