Armchair Scout
John Carlson

Photo by Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 3.0

John Carlson

Tampa Bay Lightning Defense #74

Eleven hundred and fifty-nine games, and sixty points at thirty-six.

SeasonGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2025-2671144660+9322011539.223:10
Career1159170615785+1123964923326736.423:36

Last Season

Fourteen goals and 46 assists in 71 games — 60 points, plus-nine, at 23:10 a night. His five-on-five work was done in Washington.

His 1,159th career game and his 785th point. Six hundred and fifteen career assists.

The Finesse Game

The shot from the point is still one of the heaviest in the league and it is still the reason he runs a power play. Two hundred and thirty-seven unblocked attempts from a median of 48 feet, 62 per cent from beyond forty, and fourteen goals — an excellent conversion for a defenceman.

Forty-six assists at 36 is a top-five figure among defencemen and the eleventh season he has cleared forty.

The Physical Game

Six foot three, 220, and he has never defended by force. Thirty-two penalty minutes.

The skating has slowed and the gap control was never the strength. He defends by having the puck, and at twenty-three minutes a night that is a bet the club has to keep making.

The Intangibles

Fifty-three point nine per cent of the expected goals, 82nd percentile, and 54.6 per cent of the shot attempts, 89th, across 1,220 minutes in Washington.

Those are genuinely strong figures, and they came on a club whose goaltending finished twenty-nine goals better than the chances it faced — the best in the league — so the plus-nine understates rather than flatters him.

He is 36, a Stanley Cup and a Norris into an eighteen-year career, all of it in Washington until now. Tampa is replacing Raddysh and half a blue line with a man who scored sixty points; that is not a rebuild move.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2025-26 · 1220 minutes

Expected goals
53.9%
82nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
54.6%
89th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 54 for, 44 against. Expected: 60.6 and 51.8.

The eye and the numbers

Report
76
Numbers
82

The eye and the numbers broadly agree on him.

Recent form

Last 20 appearances, 2025-26, oldest first

10

points in his last 10 games — 4 goals, 6 assists, 28 shots

Each bar is one game by points. Filled bars are games he scored in.

Usual linemates

2025-26 with WSH · 926 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

237 unblocked shots in 2025-26, 14 of them goals. His median goal came from 41 feet. 11% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 62% from beyond forty.