Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

44

Joel Hanley

Dallas Stars Defense

The fewest minutes per game of the 202 qualified defencemen, and the 3rd-fewest shots per 60.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2015-16MTL1006600000100.016:00
2016-17MTL7000-3400050.010:09
2017-18ARI50000000020.011:08
2018-19DAL160000200090.013:42
2019-20DAL80220600040.011:21
2020-21DAL35088+62000270.013:01
2021-22DAL44246-1340001811.111:56
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—12522022-1018000752.712:37

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

2 goals and 4 assists in 44 games at 11:56 a night — the fewest of the 202 qualified defencemen — with a minus-13 and 4 penalty minutes.

51.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 492 minutes, the 61st percentile, against 47.7 per cent of the attempts. His ice went 13-27, which is fourteen goals worse than the 18.55-17.55 the chances promised. That is a seventh defenceman’s sample and a goaltender’s bad month, and it should be read as neither more nor less.

The Finesse Game

2.06 shots per 60 is the 3rd-fewest of the 202 qualified defencemen. Eighteen shots in forty-four games. Two of them went in, which is 11.1 per cent and the 99th percentile, and means nothing at that volume.

The median travels 55 feet and 6 per cent come from the slot. He has no power-play time at all and has never scored a power-play goal in 125 NHL games.

0.73 even-strength points per 60 is the 26th percentile.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 186, which is small for the role he plays.

6.85 hits per 60 is the 84th percentile among defencemen and 4.91 blocks is the 71st. At twelve minutes a night that is a lot of contact per shift, and it is what a bottom-pair defenceman who cannot outreach anyone has to do instead.

22.6 mph is the 85th percentile — he is a better skater than the two men above him on the depth chart. 87.6 mph is the 6th percentile, the softest shot on the blue line by a distance.

0.228 penalties taken per 60 is the 14th-lowest of 202. Four penalty minutes in forty-four games.

The Intangibles

Undrafted, and 125 NHL games spread across seven seasons and four organisations — ten games, seven games, five, sixteen, eight, thirty-five, forty-four. He has never had a season and he has never been out of the league.

With Jani Hakanpää he takes 57.7 per cent of the chances over 333 attempts, and away from him 47.6. Three hundred attempts is a fragment, but it is the only pairing in Dallas whose number does not collapse when you ask who the forwards were.

The eighth defenceman on most nights, the seventh on the rest. The value is that a club can play him for twelve minutes in March and lose nothing it can measure.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • ordinaryraised, and called ordinary

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.09 penalty minutes a game over 44, 2nd percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • undraftedpresent and ordinary· arrived without a pick attached

    “He has never had a season and he has never been out of the league.”

  • hard-to-movea strength· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand

    “At twelve minutes a night that is a lot of contact per shift, and it is what a bottom-pair defenceman who cannot outreach anyone has to do instead.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 492 minutes

Expected goals
51.4%
66th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47.7%
35th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 13 for, 27 against. Expected: 18.6 and 17.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
8th
Numbers
66th

The numbers rank him 58 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 49 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 44 games

Top speed
22.6 mph
90th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.27 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.71 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
87.6 mph
25th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 492 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
DAL took 51.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.4% — 0.4 above the club he did it on.
The role
Third pair, 492 minutes at five-on-five — 18th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Jani Hakanpää57.7%47.6%45.2%
Tyler Seguin52.5%50.8%45.7%
John Klingberg53.2%50.4%51.3%

57.7% together, 47.6% for him apart and 45.2% for Hakanpää apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

31 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 2 of them goals. His median goal came from 62 feet. 6% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 81% from beyond forty.