Armchair Hockey Scout

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2025-26 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2025-26 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

77

Frank Vatrano

Anaheim Ducks Right Wing

234 shots and 21 goals, which is 9 per cent, after scoring 37 the year before.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2015-16BOS398311-314001998.111:53
2016-17BOS4410818-3144011168.613:29
2017-18BOS/FLA417310+334000729.710:50
2018-19FLA81241539-103820120811.514:40
2019-20FLA69161834-8302241629.915:01
2020-21FLA5618826+82620715811.414:31
2021-22FLA/NYR71181432+42210316111.213:10
2022-23ANA81221941-29665012319.516:41
2023-24ANA82372360-2085133727213.618:21
2024-25ANA81212445-9803112349.017:33
2025-26 so far—————————————
Career—645181135316-6740932626171310.615:07

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

21 goals and 24 assists in 81 games for 45 points, minus-9, on 17:33 a night and 234 shots — the most on the club by a distance.

8.97 per cent shooting, against a career rate closer to 12 and a 37-goal season on 240 shots the year before. His on-ice goals were 44-49 against an expected 49-52: the worst goal differential of any forward here relative to the chances, and most of it is not his doing.

The Finesse Game

A volume shooter with a heavy release, and the whole game is organised around getting it away quickly. 234 shots in 81 games is a top-twenty rate in the league, and he will fire from anywhere — 28 per cent of his attempts came from beyond 40 feet, which is where the conversion rate went.

There is very little playmaking. 24 assists is a byproduct of shooting that often, and he does not create for the men he plays with. What he does provide is a threat that keeps a defenceman honest.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 203, and he is thicker than he is tall — he wins pucks on the wall against bigger wingers and does not get moved off the net front.

80 penalty minutes is the second-highest total on the club and out of character with the rest of the game. On a losing team that is worth noticing: it is frustration, and it costs a penalty kill that was already 29th.

The Intangibles

Undrafted, ten NHL seasons, and a career of being useful on six different clubs. The 37-goal season at 29 was the outlier and this one is closer to what he is.

At 31 the shot will not desert him and the legs might. A 20-goal winger who takes 230 shots is a genuinely useful thing for a young team to have; he is also exactly the sort of contract a rebuilding club should be selling.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • clutch· scored his goals when the game was still live

    4 of his 21 goals late or in overtime, 92nd percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure barely repeats (0.06) · 10% keep it

  • durable· was available

    81 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    48.5% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 42.9% for his club in the minutes he sat: +5.6, 91st percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • undrafteda strength· arrived without a pick attached

    “Undrafted, ten NHL seasons, and a career of being useful on six different clubs.”

  • playmakerhe lacks it· passes up the shot a scorer takes

    “There is very little playmaking. 24 assists is a byproduct of shooting that often, and he does not create for the men he plays with.”

  • wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line

    “he wins pucks on the wall against bigger wingers”

  • hard-to-movea strength· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand

    “does not get moved off the net front”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,057 minutes

Expected goals
48.5%
38th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48.7%
40th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 44 for, 49 against. Expected: 48.7 and 51.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
66th
Numbers
38th

The report ranks him 28 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 75 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 81 games

Top speed
23.4 mph
95th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.2

Bursts over 20 mph
2.15 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.62 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
94.5 mph
95th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 83.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1057 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
ANA took 44.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.5% — 3.9 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,057 minutes at five-on-five — 69th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Troy Terry51.2%34.9%37.5%
Ryan Strome49.3%45.0%36.3%
Radko Gudas49.9%47.5%44.2%

51.2% together, 34.9% for him apart and 37.5% for Terry apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

326 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 19 of them goals. His median goal came from 23 feet. 30% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 28% from beyond forty.