This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

Matthew Tkachuk

57 points in 52 games and a 56.7 per cent chance share, and a body that has now been broken twice in eighteen months.

Season	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI

2016-17	CGY	76	13	35	48	+14	105	3	0	2	142	9.2	14:40
2017-18	CGY	68	24	25	49	-1	61	10	0	2	188	12.8	17:15
2018-19	CGY	80	34	43	77	+14	62	11	0	2	207	16.4	17:36
2019-20	CGY	69	23	38	61	-5	74	5	0	4	188	12.2	18:18
2020-21	CGY	56	16	27	43	+6	55	4	0	0	151	10.6	18:09
2021-22	CGY	82	42	62	104	+57	68	12	0	6	253	16.6	17:54
2022-23	FLA	79	40	69	109	+29	123	14	0	6	322	12.4	20:26
2023-24	FLA	80	26	62	88	+19	88	6	1	2	280	9.3	18:38
2024-25	FLA	52	22	35	57	-3	54	11	0	2	156	14.1	18:14
2025-26 so far	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Career	—	642	240	396	636	+130	690	76	1	26	1887	12.7	17:54

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

22 goals and 35 assists in 52 games for 57 points, minus-3, on 18:14 a night with 11 on the power play.

55.5 per cent at five-on-five, the 92nd percentile, with on-ice goals of 38-30 against an expected 36-29. 52 games is the number: he was hurt at the Four Nations tournament in February, returned for the playoffs, and played through a torn adductor and a broken sternum.

The Finesse Game

The hands and the vision are elite and the delivery is unusual — he makes plays from below the goal line and from the wall with defenders on him, in traffic he creates himself. 35 assists in 52 games is a genuine first-line rate.

14.1 per cent shooting on 156 attempts, with 41 per cent from inside 20 feet. He is a scorer who arrives at the net through people rather than around them, and there is no version of his offence that does not involve contact.

The Physical Game

6-2 and 202, and among the most physically difficult players in the league to play against. He cross-checks, he agitates, he stands where he is not wanted and does not leave, and he is genuinely strong on pucks.

54 penalty minutes in 52 games. The concern now is accumulated damage: a torn adductor, a broken sternum, surgery in the summer, and two consecutive postseasons played through injuries that would have ended most players’ years.

The Intangibles

The player who changed this franchise, two Cups, and a reputation as the man opponents would least like to play a seven-game series against.

At 27 the hockey is not the question. The question is how many more Aprils a body that plays this way has in it, and the answer is now visibly fewer than it was two years ago.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

playmakera strength· passes up the shot a scorer takes
“The hands and the vision are elite and the delivery is unusual — he makes plays from below the goal line and from the wall with defenders on him, in traffic he creates himself.”
wins-the-walla strength· the corners and below the goal line
“he makes plays from below the goal line and from the wall with defenders on him”
net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips
“He is a scorer who arrives at the net through people rather than around them, and there is no version of his offence that does not involve contact.”
nastya strength· hard to play against; the edge is the point
“6-2 and 202, and among the most physically difficult players in the league to play against.”
agitatora strength· gets under the skin; draws the retaliation
“He cross-checks, he agitates, he stands where he is not wanted and does not leave, and he is genuinely strong on pucks.”
hard-to-movea strength· cannot be shifted from where he decides to stand
“he stands where he is not wanted and does not leave, and he is genuinely strong on pucks”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 722 minutes

Expected goals: 55.5%; 92nd pct
Shot attempts: 58.4%; 97th pct

Goals while he was on the ice: 38 for, 30 against. Expected: 35.8 and 28.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight

Report

99th

Numbers

92nd

The two rank him within 7 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 88 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 52 games

Top speed: 20.7 mph; 5th pct
Bursts over 20 mph: 0.12 a game
Distance: 2.73 miles a game
Hardest shot: 84.3 mph; 40th pct

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 722 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club: FLA took 54.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 55.5% — 1.5 above the club he did it on.
The role: Third line, 722 minutes at five-on-five — 30th percentile in ice time.

With and without

Teammate	Together	Him apart	Mate apart
Sam Bennett	53.7%	60.3%	50.9%
Carter Verhaeghe	51.1%	58.6%	55.5%
Dmitry Kulikov	49.7%	59.5%	52.3%

53.7% together, 60.3% for him apart and 50.9% for Bennett apart. He was better away from Bennett, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Bennett.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

235 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 21 of them goals. His median goal came from 10 feet. 41% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 26% from beyond forty.