Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2024-25 report →

10

Daniel Sprong

Seattle Kraken Right Wing

The 16th-most shots per 60 of 393 forwards and the 6th-lowest slot share, at 12:59 a night.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2015-16PIT18202-10000238.78:44
2017-18PIT8213+20001229.113:59
2018-19PIT/ANA6314923-161020312511.211:58
2019-20ANA8112-20100175.914:06
2020-21WSH4213720+7120037417.611:40
2021-22WSH/SEA6314620082001539.212:59
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—202462470-103050741411.112:06

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

63 games between Washington and Seattle, 14 goals and 6 assists at 12:59 a night, even, eight penalty minutes, 153 shots. Forty-sixth overall in 2015 by Pittsburgh, six seasons, 202 games, 70 points.

The Finesse Game

11.22 shots per 60 is the 16th-most of the 393 forwards who played forty games — at 12:59 a night, which is the 23rd percentile of workload. Fifteen forwards in the league fired more often per minute and every one of them played more.

And thirty-six per cent of his attempts came from the slot, the 6th-lowest of the same 393, at a 31-foot median in the 92nd percentile.

A hundred and fifty-three shots produced fourteen goals at 9.2 per cent, the 30th percentile. His shot is 96.8 mph, the 92nd percentile. Hard, constant, and from too far out — that is the whole offensive file in one line.

1.46 even-strength points per 60 is the 30th percentile and ten per cent of his points came on the power play off 1:12 a night.

50.4 per cent of the expected goals and 51.1 per cent of the attempts, out of 58.4 per cent offensive-zone starts — the 88th-highest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts. That is one of the ninety softest chairs in the league.

His ice went 28-23 against an expectation of 33.06-32.57 — five goals short in front and nine and a half fewer against than the model asked.

The Physical Game

3.15 hits per 60 is the 38th percentile and 0.88 blocks the 10th at 6-0 and 195 pounds.

Eight penalty minutes in sixty-three games, and 0.29 penalties taken per 60 is the 10th percentile. He is not involved in anything that does not involve shooting.

The Intangibles

8.4 bursts over twenty miles an hour per 60 is the 80th percentile and 9.92 miles per 60 the 75th, on a 22.7 mph top speed at the 68th.

Nothing about the skating is a problem, which makes the thirty-one-foot median a choice rather than a limitation.

He is 25 with 202 games across six seasons and four organisations, and has never played seventy games. The shot volume, the shot speed and the sprint count are three genuine things. The slot share, the assist total — six in sixty-three games — and the fact that no club has yet given him fourteen minutes a night are the reason he keeps moving.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.13 penalty minutes a game over 63, 5th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 755 minutes

Expected goals
50.4%
59th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.1%
66th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 28 for, 23 against. Expected: 33.1 and 32.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
48th
Numbers
59th

The two rank him within 11 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 60 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 63 games

Top speed
22.7 mph
78th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.83 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.15 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
96.8 mph
95th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with WSH · 568 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
WSH took 51.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.4% — 0.7 below the club he did it on.
The role
755 minutes at five-on-five — 37th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Lars Eller48.7%51.0%48.5%
Connor McMichael54.6%48.9%57.2%
Justin Schultz51.7%49.9%51.7%

48.7% together, 51.0% for him apart and 48.5% for Eller apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

225 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 16 of them goals. His median goal came from 24 feet. 28% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 24% from beyond forty.