Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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36

Christian Fischer

Arizona Coyotes Right Wing

Ten points in 53 games on a 39.2 per cent chance share, the 2nd percentile — a second-round pick of this club, seven years in, still waiting to be anything.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17ARI7303000011030.012:20
2017-18ARI79151833-17145031549.713:54
2018-19ARI7111718-13270001169.513:10
2019-20ARI56639+216001837.211:01
2020-21ARI523811-106000476.412:45
2021-22ARI535510-1514100766.613:07
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—318434184-53776054868.812:53

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

5 goals and 5 assists in 53 games — 10 points at 13:07 a night, minus-15, with 1 power-play goal on 76 shots and 14 penalty minutes.

39.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 592 minutes, the 2nd percentile among the league’s forwards. His ice went 11-24 against an expectation of 18.37-28.47 — seven goals of scoring that the chances said should have arrived and did not, and four fewer conceded than they predicted.

Eleven goals for in 592 minutes is the lowest rate of any forward on this roster. Whatever the club was doing when he was out there, it was not attacking.

37.6 per cent of his even-strength time was spent in the offensive zone, the 2nd percentile. He was started in his own end and did not get out of it.

The Finesse Game

0.90 even-strength points per 60 is the 5th percentile among forwards. 84 points in 318 career games. There is no scoring here and there has not been since his rookie season.

76 attempts at a median of 24 feet, 51 per cent from inside 20, converting at 6.6 per cent — the 11th percentile. The locations are ordinary and the finish is poor, which for a fourth-line winger leaves only the checking.

The Physical Game

6-2 and 212, and this is the half that works. 7.86 hits per 60 is the 80th percentile among forwards and he draws penalties at the 80th, finishing plus-0.52 on drawn against taken — the 88th percentile.

He forechecks, he finishes, and he is difficult to defend without holding. Top speed 22.3 mph at the 40th percentile is ordinary, and 9.24 miles per sixty at the 18th says he is not covering much ground for a man whose value is entirely in pressure.

The Intangibles

Thirty-second overall in 2015, drafted by this club, 318 games for it, and 84 points across all of them.

He is 25, a restricted free agent every summer and re-signed every summer, because Arizona has never had anybody better for the role. Seven years is long enough to know what he is: a fourth-line forechecker on a club that has not been able to afford a better fourth line.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “7.86 hits per 60 is the 80th percentile among forwards”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 592 minutes

Expected goals
39.2%
2nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
41.4%
3rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 11 for, 24 against. Expected: 18.4 and 28.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
13th
Numbers
2nd

The two rank him within 11 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 52 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 53 games

Top speed
22.3 mph
57th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.51 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.02 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
89.1 mph
59th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 592 minutes at five-on-five

  • Antoine Rousseloff the roster33%
  • Riley Nashoff the roster23%

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
ARI took 42.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 39.2% — 3.6 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 592 minutes at five-on-five — 24th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Shayne Gostisbehere39.4%39.1%43.1%
Antoine Roussel42.5%37.3%40.7%
Anton Stralman34.5%41.6%44.6%

39.4% together, 39.1% for him apart and 43.1% for Gostisbehere apart. Gostisbehere was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

89 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 5 of them goals. His median goal came from 10 feet. 48% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 20% from beyond forty.