Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

4

Shayne Gostisbehere

Arizona Coyotes Defense

Fifty-one points from the blue line at 5-11 with a 100.3 mph shot, on a 42.6 per cent chance share — and 48.4 of it in the minutes away from Dysin Mayo.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2014-15PHI2000-2000020.012:34
2015-16PHI64172946+82480515211.220:05
2016-17PHI7673239-21322011983.519:36
2017-18PHI78135265+10257022215.921:27
2018-19PHI7892837-20224021805.019:40
2019-20PHI425712-420101736.918:18
2020-21PHI4191120-265008510.619:56
2021-22ARI82143751-23262021519.322:11
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—46374196270-541552901310627.020:20

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

14 goals and 37 assists in all 82 games — 51 points at 22:11 a night, minus-23, with 2 power-play goals on 151 shots and 26 penalty minutes.

Fifty-one points from a defenceman on the worst club in the league. Fourteen defencemen in hockey scored more, and every one of them played for a better team than this.

42.6 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,449 minutes, the 5th percentile among defencemen. His ice went 59-76 against an expectation of 51.27-69.12 — eight goals of scoring above what the chances predicted, and seven more conceded than they did.

And then the pairing. With Dysin Mayo he took 38.4 per cent across 1,626 attempts — the largest pairing sample on the club. Apart from Mayo, across 1,021, he took 48.4. Ten points of chance share is the difference between a bottom-pair defenceman and an ordinary one, and it is entirely accounted for by who was standing next to him.

The Finesse Game

37 assists and 196 career assists against 74 goals, and the first pass is early and flat. He is a genuine power-play quarterback — 2:51 a night of it, the 91st percentile among defencemen, with 37 per cent of his points scored on it — and 1.27 even-strength points per 60 at the 83rd percentile says the offence is not only the man advantage.

The shot is the surprise. 100.3 mph off a 5-11, 183-pound frame is the 93rd percentile, and he converted 14 of 151 attempts at 9.3 per cent, the 95th percentile for a defenceman. He shoots from a median of 50 feet and scores anyway, because the puck arrives before the goaltender has found it.

2.57 giveaways per 60 is among the highest figures for a defenceman in the league. He carries out of his own end rather than passing out of it, and a share of the time he is stripped doing it.

The Physical Game

5-11 and 183, and there is no physical game. 1.98 hits per 60 is the 17th percentile and 155 penalty minutes in 463 games is the record of a man who has never fought for a puck he could skate around. 3.79 blocks per 60, the 39th percentile, is ordinary at best.

The skating is not what the size suggests. Top speed 21.8 mph is the 43rd percentile, 0.5 bursts above 20 mph per 60 is the 14th, and 7.98 miles per sixty is the 7th percentile among defencemen. He is not fast and he does not cover ground. A small offensive defenceman is usually small and quick; this one is small and clever, which is a harder thing to survive on when the gap closes.

The Intangibles

Seventy-eighth overall in 2012, a Calder finalist at 22 in Philadelphia, 270 points in 463 games, and a career that has already been written off once.

He is 29, in the last year of his contract, and he is the most tradeable asset on a club that will finish last again. Fifty-one points and a hundred-mile-an-hour shot from a left-shot defenceman who can run a power play is a genuine deadline commodity, and the 42.6 will scare somebody off it who has not read the second half of this page.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-shot· beats a goaltender from range

    7 of 152 attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 4.6%, 95th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.21) · 16% keep it

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “196 career assists against 74 goals, and the first pass is early and flat”

  • clears-the-creasehe lacks it· moves grown men off the front of his net

    “1.98 hits per 60 is the 17th percentile and 155 penalty minutes in 463 games is the record of a man who has never fought for a puck he could skate around”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,449 minutes

Expected goals
42.6%
8th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
43.7%
9th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 59 for, 76 against. Expected: 51.3 and 69.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
48th
Numbers
8th

The report ranks him 40 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 60 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 82 games

Top speed
21.8 mph
61st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.20 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.95 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
100.3 mph
95th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1449 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
ARI took 42.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 42.6% — 0.2 below the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,449 minutes at five-on-five — 96th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Dysin Mayo38.4%48.4%38.2%
Phil Kessel45.5%41.4%42.5%
Clayton Keller44.4%41.8%47.7%

38.4% together, 48.4% for him apart and 38.2% for Mayo apart. He was better away from Mayo, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Mayo.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

213 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 14 of them goals. His median goal came from 41 feet. 7% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 71% from beyond forty.