Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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91

Carl Grundstrom

Los Angeles Kings Right Wing

The 14th-most hits per 60 of 393 forwards and the 37th-most ground covered, in ten minutes and fifty-three seconds a night.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19LAK15516-460012619.214:58
2019-20LAK13044+28000160.012:46
2020-21LAK476511-1016003669.112:28
2021-22LAK549615+4260018310.810:53
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—129201636-85600519110.512:07

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

Nine goals and six assists in fifty-four games at 10:53 a night — the 6th percentile for ice time among forwards. Plus-4, twenty-six penalty minutes, at 24. Career: 129 games, 36 points.

The Finesse Game

1.58 even-strength points per 60 is the 36th percentile and 8.47 shots per 60 the 68th, at 10.8 per cent. Forty-three per cent from the slot at a 30-foot median, the 88th percentile for distance — a fourth-liner who shoots from further out than the role usually allows.

No power-play points at all, off fourteen seconds a night.

49.4 per cent of the expected goals is the 48th percentile and 52.4 per cent of the attempts the 72nd. His ice went 19-16 against an expectation of 22.08-22.59.

The pairing that hurt him most was Rasmus Kupari: 41.2 per cent across 250 attempts, against 52.0 apart.

The Physical Game

13.67 hits per 60 is the 14th-most of 393 forwards and 10.14 miles per 60 is the 37th-most of 365 — he covers ground and he finishes at the end of it. That is a coherent fourth-line identity and the numbers agree on it.

The cost is in the next column. 1.33 penalties taken per 60 is the 88th percentile and the net is the 8th, so the forecheck is costing more than it wins. 0.82 drawn against 1.33 taken, on a club whose penalty kill finished 21st.

The Intangibles

22.8 mph is the 72nd percentile and 6.5 bursts per 60 the 65th — ordinary speed, top-tenth workload. He is not fast; he simply never stops moving, which is what the hit total is built from.

He is 24 with four partial seasons behind him and a settled role. A club gets exactly what it sees here: heavy forechecking minutes, a handful of goals, and a penalty ledger that goes the wrong way. What none of it measures is whether the hits change possession, which is the only question that would make him more than a thirteenth forward.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “13.67 hits per 60 is the 14th-most of 393 forwards and 10.14 miles per 60 is the 37th-most of 365 — he covers ground and he finishes at the end of it.”

  • fouls-when-beatenhe lacks it· the stick foul that follows losing a step

    “1.33 penalties taken per 60 is the 88th percentile and the net is the 8th, so the forecheck is costing more than it wins.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 576 minutes

Expected goals
49.4%
51st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.4%
75th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 19 for, 16 against. Expected: 22.1 and 22.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
43rd
Numbers
51st

The two rank him within 8 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 59 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 54 games

Top speed
22.8 mph
81st pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.19 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.84 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
92.5 mph
80th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 576 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
LAK took 52.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.4% — 3.4 below the club he did it on.
The role
576 minutes at five-on-five — 23rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Blake Lizotte50.5%49.0%52.1%
Sean Durzi47.5%50.3%52.7%
Tobias Bjornfot53.4%47.7%46.4%

50.5% together, 49.0% for him apart and 52.1% for Lizotte apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

113 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 9 of them goals. His median goal came from 9 feet. 35% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 22% from beyond forty.