Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.
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31

Philipp Grubauer

Seattle Kraken Goaltender

A .9205 across 5,745 shots in nine seasons, then .8891 across 1,479 — the worst save percentage of the 53 goaltenders who played twenty-five games.

SeasonTeamGPWLOTLGAGAASOSASV%
2012-13WSH201053.57059.915
2013-14WSH17655352.380469.925
2014-15WSH110021.85025.920
2015-16WSH22891432.320523.918
2016-17WSH241362432.043585.926
2017-18WSH3515103732.353953.923
2018-19COL371895892.6431071.917
2019-20COL3618124902.6321067.916
2020-21COL403091771.957993.922
2021-22SEA55183151643.1621479.889
2022-23 so far——————————
Career—26912792266212.51207224.914

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

55 games, 18-31-5, a .8891 save percentage and a 3.16 goals-against, two shutouts on 1,479 shots. That is 53rd of the 53 goaltenders who played twenty-five games — dead last in the league. One hundred and twelfth overall in 2010 by Washington — the fourth round — ten seasons, 269 games.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 188 pounds, which is small for the position, and 30 years old.

Here is the whole file in two lines. Across the nine seasons before this one he faced 5,745 NHL shots and stopped 92.05 per cent of them. Last season he faced 1,479 and stopped 88.91.

Three hundred and fourteen points of decline, on a sample large enough to be a season.

And the nine seasons before were not erratic. .9153, .9254, .9200, .9178, .9265, .9234, .9169, .9157, .9225. Every one of them between .9153 and .9265 — a hundred and twelve points of spread across nine years, and then a drop nearly three times that size in one.

Career .914 across 7,224 shots, which the last season has dragged down by itself.

The Mental Game

Seattle rated 31st in the league in goaltending at minus-36.0 goals saved above expectation. Only New Jersey was worse.

And the skaters in front of him were not the problem. They finished 3rd in the league in expected goals against per 60 at even strength at 2.381, 15th in attempt share and 18th in chance share. The club’s five-on-five ledger reads 152-188 against an expectation of 147.7-152.0 — thirty-six more goals against than the model asked, which is precisely the goaltending figure.

Two hundred and eighty-five goals against, on the 3rd-best chance suppression in hockey. Martin Jones added .9001 across thirty-five games, 40th of the same 53.

The Intangibles

Nothing here measures rebound control, tracking through traffic or what a first year in a new city does to a goaltender.

What it measures is the largest single-season collapse in this edition. A man with nine seasons above .9150 produced the worst figure in the league.

The record cannot say whether it was the season or the goaltender, and 5,745 shots of evidence on one side against 1,479 on the other is the only honest way to weigh it.