Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

46

Blake Lizotte

Los Angeles Kings Center

Five-foot-nine, the 4th-percentile giveaway rate, and 56.9 per cent of the attempts with him on the ice — the 93rd percentile.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19LAK1000-1000010.011:12
2019-20LAK6561723-420220876.913:58
2020-21LAK413710+216000427.112:42
2021-22LAK70101424+15280129111.012:10
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—177193857+12642322218.612:57

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

10 goals and 14 assists in seventy games at 12:10 a night, plus-15, twenty-eight penalty minutes. 5-9 and 176 pounds, and 177 NHL games at 24.

Nobody drafted a 5-9 centre out of Minnesota and he has now played 177 NHL games, four seasons, and the second-best attempt share among Kings forwards.

The Finesse Game

1.64 even-strength points per 60 is the 41st percentile and not one of his points came on the power play — he played eight seconds a night with the extra man. Everything here is even strength and the kill.

6.41 shots per 60 is the 33rd percentile at 11.0 per cent, 52 per cent from the slot at a 24-foot median. Modest volume, sensible locations.

56.9 per cent of the attempts is the 93rd percentile, second-best among Kings forwards behind Arthur Kaliyev, against 51.8 per cent of the expected goals at the 65th. The gap between those two is the shape of a fourth line: it holds the puck and does not do much with it. His ice went 32-22 against an expectation of 30.60-28.50 — one of the few Kings whose shifts actually outscored the model.

0.70 giveaways per 60 is the 4th percentile and 2.18 takeaways is the 84th — he takes far more than he loses, which almost nobody does.

The Physical Game

5.21 hits per 60 is the 64th percentile at 176 pounds, and 0.85 blocks is the 8th. He initiates and he does not shot-block, which is an unusual way round for a small forward.

1.13 penalties drawn per 60 is the 80th percentile against 0.99 taken. He killed 1:05 a night, the 61st percentile, at 5-9 and 176 pounds.

The Intangibles

9.8 bursts over 20 mph per 60 is the 48th-most of 365 forwards and 22.9 mph is the 76th percentile. He sprints often and covers an ordinary amount of ground — 85.3 mph is the 18th percentile, the softest shot on the club.

The honest summary is a fourth-line centre who does three things well — sprints, kills, does not turn it over — and shoots like nobody. What makes him worth the page is the attempt share, which at 56.9 per cent is bettered only by Arthur Kaliyev, and which he has produced without a single power-play point to inflate it.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • undrafteda strength· arrived without a pick attached

    “Nobody drafted a 5-9 centre out of Minnesota and he has now played 177 NHL games, four seasons, and the second-best attempt share among Kings forwards.”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “He killed 1:05 a night, the 61st percentile, at 5-9 and 176 pounds.”

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “0.70 giveaways per 60 is the 4th percentile and 2.18 takeaways is the 84th — he takes far more than he loses, which almost nobody does.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 761 minutes

Expected goals
51.8%
69th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
56.9%
95th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 32 for, 22 against. Expected: 30.6 and 28.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
48th
Numbers
69th

The numbers rank him 21 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 60 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 70 games

Top speed
22.9 mph
84th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.99 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.94 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
85.3 mph
41st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 761 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
LAK took 52.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.8% — 1.0 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 761 minutes at five-on-five — 37th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Brendan Lemieux55.1%47.7%49.4%
Arthur Kaliyev53.7%49.5%59.1%
Matt Roy51.6%51.9%53.4%

55.1% together, 47.7% for him apart and 49.4% for Lemieux apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

122 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 10 of them goals. His median goal came from 18 feet. 42% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 21% from beyond forty.