Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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26

Brock McGinn

Pittsburgh Penguins Left Wing

The 25th-most blocks of 393 forwards and the 30th-heaviest penalty-killing load, on the 20th-percentile attempt share.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2015-16CAR21314-14100002512.011:11
2016-17CAR577916-116001749.512:00
2017-18CAR80161430-122221115910.114:30
2018-19CAR82101626+10200101238.114:19
2019-20CAR6871017-417021937.513:12
2020-21CAR378513060115813.814:59
2021-22PIT641210220140029912.115:00
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—4096365128-319525663110.013:51

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

64 games, 12 goals and 10 assists at 15:00 a night, even, fourteen penalty minutes, 99 shots. Forty-seventh overall in 2012 by Carolina, seven seasons, 409 games, 128 points.

The Finesse Game

1.59 even-strength points per 60 is the 38th percentile and none of his points came on the power play: one second a night, the 2nd percentile. He is a five-on-five and penalty-killing forward and nothing else.

6.19 shots per 60 is the 30th percentile at 12.1 per cent, from a 24-foot median with fifty per cent from the slot. Twelve goals from ninety-nine shots is the second-best goal total of his career.

1.13 takeaways per 60 is the 16th percentile against 1.19 giveaways at the 28th — very little happens in either direction.

49.3 per cent of the expected goals and 46.4 per cent of the attempts, the 20th percentile, out of 35.6 per cent offensive-zone starts — the 48th-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts.

He and Teddy Blueger between them absorbed almost all of the hard starts on this roster, and the three-point gap between his chance share and his attempt share is what that assignment produces when it is done well.

The Physical Game

3.13 blocks per 60 is the 25th-most of the 393 forwards who played forty games, at 6-0 and 191 pounds.

5.88 hits per 60 is the 70th percentile. 0.63 penalties drawn per 60 against 0.44 taken, and fourteen penalty minutes came out of sixty-four games — a genuinely disciplined season for a man in this much traffic.

The Intangibles

2:01 short-handed a night is the 30th-most of the 393 forwards who played forty games.

23.0 mph is the 80th percentile, 7.6 bursts per 60 the 73rd, 9.96 miles per 60 the 78th. Three skating measurements in the upper quarter — he is the quickest of Pittsburgh’s checking forwards by some way.

He is 28 with 409 NHL games and has never had a season above thirty points. The blocks, the kill, the chair and the skating are the job. The attempt share, the scoring rate and the absence of any power-play role are the ceiling, and both halves have been stable for seven seasons.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-minutes· is started in his own end, against the other club's best

    36% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 9th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “2:01 short-handed a night is the 30th-most of the 393 forwards who played forty games.”

  • shot-blockera strength· gets in front of it

    “3.13 blocks per 60 is the 25th-most of the 393 forwards who played forty games, at 6-0 and 191 pounds.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 842 minutes

Expected goals
49.3%
50th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
46.4%
25th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 26 for, 29 against. Expected: 30.1 and 30.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
63rd
Numbers
50th

The two rank him within 13 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 63 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 64 games

Top speed
23.0 mph
87th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.91 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.49 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
89.1 mph
59th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 842 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
PIT took 53.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.3% — 4.2 below the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 842 minutes at five-on-five — 45th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Teddy Blueger48.9%49.9%52.2%
John Marino53.1%46.9%51.3%
Zach Aston-Reese49.3%49.4%48.5%

48.9% together, 49.9% for him apart and 52.2% for Blueger apart. Blueger was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

127 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 11 of them goals. His median goal came from 14 feet. 39% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 13% from beyond forty.