Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

94

Ryan Lomberg

Florida Panthers Left Wing

Five foot nine, the 93rd percentile in top speed, and the 6th percentile in distance covered.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18CGY701101500050.06:15
2018-19CGY400001700010.06:59
2020-21FLA34224-267000474.39:43
2021-22FLA559918+492001919.911:24
2022-23FLA8212820-1880011349.011:19
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—182232043+12790022788.310:45

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

12 goals and 8 assists in all 82 games — 20 points — with 88 penalty minutes. Minus-1, 11:19 a night, 134 shots at 9.0 per cent.

Twelve goals from a fourth line at eleven minutes a night is a good return, and it is a career high by three.

51.0 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 59th percentile, with his ice at 38-37 against an expectation of 40.95-39.30.

Five seasons, 182 games, 43 points.

The Finesse Game

134 shots at a median of 25 feet, 39 per cent from inside twenty and 14 per cent from beyond forty.

Beyond forty: 20 shots on goal and no goals. Inside forty: 108 shots, 12 goals, 11.11 per cent.

One hundred and thirty-four shots from eleven minutes a night is a high rate for a fourth-line winger — half again as many per minute as Luostarinen took on the third. He shoots whenever he is given the puck, which at 5-9 is a reasonable policy.

87.1 mph at the 23rd percentile.

The Physical Game

5-9 and 184, and 88 penalty minutes in 82 games — the third straight season he has taken more than sixty.

The tracking is the interesting part. Top speed 23.3 mph, the 93rd percentile. 1.78 miles a game, the 6th percentile. That combination is the fourth-line signature: he is genuinely quick and he is on the ice for very little of the game.

And the speed reading is worth taking seriously here in a way it usually is not. A tracked maximum tends to rise with ice time — more shifts, more chances to register a top number — so a 93rd-percentile reading on an 11:19 workload is a fast player rather than a well-used one.

He fights, he finishes checks and he plays the whole game on the edge of a penalty.

The Intangibles

Undrafted, signed by Calgary out of junior, eleven NHL games across two Calgary seasons, and then 34, 55 and 82 games in Florida.

49.1 per cent of his five-on-five shifts started in the attacking zone, the 41st percentile.

There is no projection to make. He is twenty-eight, he is what he is, and what he is has been useful enough for a club that reached a Stanley Cup Final.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • undrafteda strength· arrived without a pick attached

    “**Undrafted**, signed by Calgary out of junior, eleven NHL games across two Calgary seasons, and then 34, 55 and 82 games in Florida.”

  • nastya strength· hard to play against; the edge is the point

    “He fights, he finishes checks and he plays the whole game on the edge of a penalty.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 889 minutes

Expected goals
51%
60th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53.1%
80th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 38 for, 37 against. Expected: 41.0 and 39.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
53rd
Numbers
60th

The two rank him within 7 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 66 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 82 games

Top speed
23.3 mph
94th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.89 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.78 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
87.1 mph
49th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 889 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
FLA took 53.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.0% — 2.6 below the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 889 minutes at five-on-five — 48th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Eric Staal51.8%50.1%45.2%
Josh Mahura52.4%50.3%59.0%
Nick Cousins49.2%52.1%50.6%

51.8% together, 50.1% for him apart and 45.2% for Staal apart. Staal was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Staal than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

183 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 12 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 39% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 14% from beyond forty.