Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

28

Joshua Mahura

Florida Panthers Defense

Anaheim gave him seventy-nine games in four seasons; Florida gave him eighty-two in one.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19ANA1714504000205.014:18
2019-20ANA11134-32000119.116:14
2020-21ANA1313404000147.115:54
2021-22ANA38347-1412000368.314:04
2022-23FLA8241216+1748001785.114:02
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—1611026360700011596.314:22

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

4 goals and 12 assists in all 82 games — 16 points. Plus-17, 14:02 a night, 78 shots, 48 penalty minutes.

57.1 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five, the 93rd percentile, with his ice at 50-36 against an expectation of 54.12-40.70.

That 93rd percentile needs its context immediately: his offensive-zone start share was 55.0 per cent, the 72nd percentile, a favourable deployment on a third pair. He was put in positions to succeed and did not waste them, which is a real if modest thing.

Five seasons, 161 games, 36 points — and 82 of those games came last year.

The Finesse Game

78 shots at a median of 47 feet, 9 per cent from inside twenty and 69 per cent from beyond forty.

Beyond forty: 53 shots on goal, 2 goals. Inside forty: 22 shots, 2 goals.

Four goals on 78 shots. He moves the puck up rather than shooting it, and on a third pair behind a club that generated the second-most expected goals per sixty at even strength in the league, that is the correct instinct.

90.2 mph at the 45th percentile, on sixteen slap shots.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 193, and 48 penalty minutes in 82 games.

Top speed 22.2 mph, the 43rd percentile; bursts 0.7 a game, the 38th; 2.06 miles a game, the 19th percentile — the lowest distance figure of any Florida defenceman.

That last number is worth pausing on. Fourteen minutes a night on a third pair with favourable starts produces less skating than a top pair, so a low reading is expected; what it does not support is any claim about how hard he works. It is an ice-time statistic before it is anything else.

He is not a physical defenceman and Florida does not use him as one.

The Intangibles

Eighty-fifth overall in 2016, four Anaheim seasons that produced seventy-nine games in total, and then a full season at twenty-four.

What this book cannot tell you is whether the 93rd-percentile chance share belongs to him or to the shelter. The honest reading is: mostly the shelter, and he did not sink in it, which is more than the previous four seasons had established.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    82 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    57.1% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 52.3% for his club in the minutes he sat: +4.8, 92nd percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,089 minutes

Expected goals
57.1%
93rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
56.2%
93rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 50 for, 36 against. Expected: 54.1 and 40.7.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
24th
Numbers
93rd

The numbers rank him 69 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 60 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 82 games

Top speed
22.2 mph
72nd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.72 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.06 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
90.2 mph
41st pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.0

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 1089 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
FLA took 53.6% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 57.1% — 3.5 above the club he did it on.
The role
Third pair, 1,089 minutes at five-on-five — 69th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Radko Gudas59.4%51.9%50.9%
Ryan Lomberg52.4%59.0%50.3%
Nick Cousins50.0%59.7%50.1%

59.4% together, 51.9% for him apart and 50.9% for Gudas apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

116 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 4 of them goals. His median goal came from 42 feet. 9% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 69% from beyond forty.