Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

24

Roope Hintz

Dallas Stars Center

Thirty-seven goals, and 19.5 sprints over 20 mph per 60 is the 3rd-most of the 365 forwards the tracking covers.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19DAL5891322-1124303999.114:03
2019-20DAL60191433+31632512015.814:45
2020-21DAL41152843+1346019216.318:14
2021-22DAL80373572+152893721317.418:03
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—2398090170+20722151652415.316:17

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

37 goals and 35 assists in 80 games — 72 points, both career highs by a distance; his previous bests were 19 goals and 43 points. A plus-15 and 28 penalty minutes at 18:03 a night, the 76th percentile. Twenty-first in the league in goals.

57.4 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,075 minutes, the 93rd percentile. His ice went 60-47 against an expectation of 56.87-42.24.

Six playoff games for two goals and two assists.

The Finesse Game

Thirty-seven goals on 213 shots is 17.4 per cent, the 91st percentile among forwards — a real finishing edge and the least repeatable part of the season.

61 per cent of his shots came from the slot and the median travels 21 feet. He gets to the same places Joe Pavelski does and arrives at them a great deal faster.

2.30 even-strength points per 60 is the 76th percentile and 33 per cent of his points came on the power play, the 85th — a higher share than Robertson’s and worth watching.

1.00 takeaways per 60 is the 42nd-lowest of 393 forwards. He does not win pucks; he beats people to them.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 217, and this is the skating file the other two on his line do not have.

23.5 mph is the 19th-fastest top speed of the 365 forwards the tracking covers, and 19.5 bursts over 20 mph per 60 is the 3rd-most — behind only Julien Gauthier and Nathan MacKinnon, and ahead of Connor McDavid. He crossed 20 mph about twenty times an hour.

That is the whole shape of the line. Jason Robertson is the 18th-slowest forward in the league and Joe Pavelski the 7th-lowest; the man between them is in the top twenty for both speed and sprints. One of the three has to get there, and it is him.

9.85 miles per 60 is the 68th percentile — the ground covered is ordinary and the pace over it is not.

3.41 hits per 60 is the 43rd percentile and 2.20 blocks is the 76th. Twenty-eight penalty minutes in eighty games.

The Intangibles

Forty-ninth overall in 2015, the second round, 239 NHL games and 80 goals at 25.

Two career-high seasons in a row and the second one doubled the first. The question the data cannot settle is whether 17.4 per cent finishing holds — it did not in 2018-19 or 2019-20, and 37 goals on the shot volume he takes is a good season and a lucky one at once.

Without Jason Robertson he is at 47.7 per cent over 370 attempts and without Joe Pavelski 53.5 over 315. Both fragments; both point at Robertson.

A 25-year-old centre who skates like this, finishes like this and takes 1:10 a night short-handed is the most valuable contract shape in hockey. The tracking says the legs are real. The scoresheet says the finishing may not be.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    80 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    57.4% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 48.3% for his club in the minutes he sat: +9.1, 98th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • sheltered· is started in the attacking end

    61% of his end-zone starts in the attacking end, 92nd percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 47% keep it

  • edgesa strength· changes direction at speed; the forechecker commits and he is gone

    “He crossed 20 mph about twenty times an hour.”

  • transitiona strength· carries it out; gains the line under control

    “He does not win pucks; he beats people to them.”

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “He gets to the same places Joe Pavelski does and arrives at them a great deal faster.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,075 minutes

Expected goals
57.4%
95th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53.4%
80th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 60 for, 47 against. Expected: 56.9 and 42.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
93rd
Numbers
95th

The two rank him within 2 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 73 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 80 games

Top speed
23.5 mph
97th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
5.88 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.96 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
91.3 mph
73rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1075 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
DAL took 51.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 57.4% — 6.4 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,075 minutes at five-on-five — 72nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Joe Pavelski58.2%53.5%52.5%
Jason Robertson59.6%47.7%54.3%
Ryan Suter62.3%53.0%45.8%

58.2% together, 53.5% for him apart and 52.5% for Pavelski apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

300 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 37 of them goals. His median goal came from 14 feet. 47% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 11% from beyond forty.