This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

Peyton Krebs

A 40.5 per cent chance share and a minus-26 at twenty-one, off a shot that leaves his stick at 80.5 mph — the 2nd percentile.

Season	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI

2020-21	VGK	4	0	1	1	+1	0	0	0	0	1	0.0	11:26
2021-22	VGK/BUF	57	7	15	22	-26	22	0	0	2	56	12.5	14:35
2022-23 so far	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Career	—	61	7	16	23	-25	22	0	0	2	57	12.3	14:23

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

7 goals and 15 assists in 57 games — 22 points at 14:35 a night, minus-26, on 56 shots and 22 penalty minutes.

40.5 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 719 minutes, the 4th percentile among the league’s forwards. His ice went 21-44 against an expectation of 22.4-32.86 — the scoring landed where the chances said and eleven more went in behind him than they predicted.

Twenty-one goals for and forty-four against in 719 minutes. No forward on this roster was on for a worse ratio, and only Anders Bjork was on for a lower chance share.

The Finesse Game

The shot leaves his stick at 80.5 mph — the 2nd percentile among the league’s forwards — and he took 4.04 attempts per 60, the 2nd percentile. Fifty-six shots in 57 games. Seven goals came off them at 12.5 per cent, which is a rate nobody sustains on that volume.

15 assists against 7 goals and 45 per cent of his points scored on the power play, the 98th percentile. Take the man advantage away and there is 1.02 even-strength points per 60, the 8th percentile.

2.53 giveaways per 60 is among the highest figures for a forward in the league against 1.08 takeaways at the 14th. He loses the puck more than twice as often as he wins one.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 188, and 0.58 blocks per 60 is the 2nd percentile among forwards with 1.80 hits at the 17th. He is not yet strong enough to be part of a defensive shift and the record says so at both ends.

Top speed 22.7 mph at the 64th percentile with 4.8 bursts above 20 mph per 60 at the 47th. The skating is the one ordinary thing on this page and at twenty-one it is the thing most likely to improve.

The Intangibles

Seventeenth overall in 2019 by Vegas, traded to Buffalo at twenty in the Jack Eichel deal, and 61 NHL games.

He is 21. Every number here is bad and almost none of it is settled — a twenty-one-year-old centre given a regular shift on a club that finished 24th will produce exactly this kind of page, and the two figures worth watching are the shot velocity and the giveaways, because those are the ones that do not usually fix themselves.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
ordinaryraised, and called ordinary

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

perimeter· shoots from the outside, by choice or because he cannot get in
28.6% of his attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 90th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.66) · 50% keep it
playmakerpresent and ordinary· passes up the shot a scorer takes
“15 assists against 7 goals and 45 per cent of his points scored on the power play, the 98th percentile”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 719 minutes

Expected goals: 40.5%; 4th pct
Shot attempts: 46.3%; 24th pct

Goals while he was on the ice: 21 for, 44 against. Expected: 22.4 and 32.9.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight

Report

26th

Numbers

4th

The report ranks him 22 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 55 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 57 games

Top speed: 22.7 mph; 75th pct
Bursts over 20 mph: 1.18 a game
Distance: 2.32 miles a game
Hardest shot: 80.5 mph; 23rd pct

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 603 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club: BUF took 46.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 40.5% — 5.8 below the club he did it on.
The role: Third line, 719 minutes at five-on-five — 34th percentile in ice time.

With and without

Teammate	Together	Him apart	Mate apart
Dylan Cozens	46.3%	37.9%	48.1%
Rasmus Dahlin	43.5%	39.1%	46.9%
Victor Olofsson	39.5%	40.9%	47.9%

46.3% together, 37.9% for him apart and 48.1% for Cozens apart. He was worse away from Cozens, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Cozens did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

77 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 7 of them goals. His median goal came from 17 feet. 27% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 29% from beyond forty.