Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

18

Pavel Zacha

Boston Bruins Center

47 points in a first-line role, and the most quietly useful forward on a bad team.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2015-16NJD1022+4000030.016:51
2016-17NJD7081624-1719502839.614:18
2017-18NJD6981725-3302101127.114:22
2018-19NJD61131225-6154229913.116:05
2019-20NJD6582432-1214321978.316:16
2020-21NJD50171835-111050410316.517:09
2021-22NJD70152136-212240114810.116:51
2022-23BOS82213657+261630313116.016:03
2023-24BOS78213859+121860614814.218:06
2024-25BOS82143347-82122513210.619:04
2025-26 so far
Career628125217342-3616534724105611.816:31

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

14 goals and 33 assists in 82 games for 47 points, minus-8, on 19:04 a night with 5 game-winners.

48.9 per cent at five-on-five, the 39th percentile. His on-ice goals were 34-42 against an expected 43-45 — outscored by 8 on chances that were roughly even, which was the story of most of this roster.

The Finesse Game

A 6-4 centre with better hands than the frame suggests and a habit of making the simple play quickly. 42 per cent of his attempts come from inside 20 feet and only 10 per cent from beyond 40, so he plays inside rather than on the perimeter.

The playmaking is the strength — 33 assists — and it is largely a matter of holding the puck one beat longer than a defenceman expects. There is no rush game and the shot is ordinary; he creates from below the goal line and in the slot.

The Physical Game

6-4 and 211, and he uses it properly on the wall without being a hitter. He wins his share of pucks, protects them with his back to pressure, and is difficult to move off a net front.

21 penalty minutes over 82 games. Four consecutive full seasons — the durability is genuine.

The Intangibles

A 6th overall pick who was a disappointment in New Jersey and has been a useful top-six forward here for three years without ever being what the draft position implied.

That is a fair place to have landed. On a good club he is an excellent third forward on a scoring line; on this one he was asked to be the second option and the numbers show what that costs.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 1,099 minutes

Expected goals
48.9%
40th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49%
42nd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 34 for, 42 against. Expected: 43.3 and 45.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
71st
Numbers
40th

The report ranks him 31 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 357 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 76 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 1099 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
BOS took 48.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.9% — 0.5 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,099 minutes at five-on-five — 75th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
David Pastrnak50.5%43.8%49.9%
Morgan Geekie51.6%42.7%51.3%
Mason Lohrei49.3%48.7%48.0%

50.5% together, 43.8% for him apart and 49.9% for Pastrnak apart. He was worse away from Pastrnak, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Pastrnak did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

199 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 14 of them goals. His median goal came from 16 feet. 42% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 10% from beyond forty.