Armchair Hockey Scout Beta
6

Mike Reilly

New York Islanders Defense

One hundred and four career assists against 18 goals, and a fourth-round pick's ninth season.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2015-16MIN29167-48000273.712:05
2016-17MIN17101+12000195.312:23
2017-18MIN/MTL5721618-526000653.114:58
2018-19MTL5738110161011013.018:41
2019-20MTL/OTT4411516-624101851.218:01
2020-21OTT/BOS5502727+522000980.019:16
2021-22BOS7041317-1320101353.018:57
2022-23BOS1001102000120.016:44
2023-24FLA/NYI6161824-1300111264.817:10
2024-25 so far
Career40018104122-111622236682.717:11

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

61 games, 6 goals and 18 assists for 24 points, 1 shorthanded, 30 penalty minutes, 17:10 a night and minus-1. He took 53.5 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 938 minutes, the 79th percentile, and his ice went 37-39 against an expectation of 40.60-35.25.

Four goals of scoring that did not arrive and four more conceded than the chances called for. A 79th-percentile chance share is the best of any defenceman on this roster and it came from a third pairing.

The Finesse Game

168 attempts at a median of 54 feet with 76 per cent from beyond 40, 126 on goal, converted at 4.8 per cent against a career 2.69.

104 career assists in 400 games against 18 goals. Six goals is a career high by two and it will not repeat. He skates the puck out of trouble and finds the outlet, and it is the only reason a fourth-round pick has played four hundred games.

The Physical Game

He is 6-2 and 191 and does not defend with contact at all.

162 career penalty minutes in 400 games is a low rate. He does not clear the crease, does not win many walls, and is moved off pucks by forwards who are stronger.

The Intangibles

A fourth-round pick in 2011 by Columbus, out of Glenview, Illinois, three years at Minnesota, nine seasons across five organisations, and 122 points in 400 games.

He is 31 and is on his fifth club. The chance share says he should play more than seventeen minutes and the defending says why he does not.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 938 minutes

Expected goals
53.5%
80th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
50.9%
62nd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 37 for, 39 against. Expected: 40.6 and 35.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
31st
Numbers
80th

The numbers rank him 49 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 415 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 62 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 910 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
NYI took 49.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 53.5% — 4.4 above the club he did it on.
The role
Third pair, 938 minutes at five-on-five — 51st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Sebastian Aho52.6%54.1%48.1%
Mathew Barzal61.7%49.4%50.3%
Bo Horvat60.3%50.4%51.2%

52.6% together, 54.1% for him apart and 48.1% for Aho apart. Aho was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Aho than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

168 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 6 of them goals. His median goal came from 41 feet. 7% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 76% from beyond forty.