Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

43

Marián Studenic

Dallas Stars Right Wing

Thirty-three games across two clubs, and 56 per cent of his attempts came from inside twenty feet.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2020-21NJD8112-24000714.310:47
2021-22NJD/DAL33224-76000424.811:09
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—41336-910000496.111:05

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

2 goals and 2 assists in 33 games split between New Jersey and Dallas — a minus-7 and 6 penalty minutes at 11:09 a night.

Thirty-three games is well short of the 40 this book requires for a peer group, so what follows is raw. 52.1 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 358 minutes, which is a good number on a small sample from two bad situations. His ice went 9-15 against an expectation of 15.2-13.99 — six fewer goals for than the chances promised and one more against, in six hours of hockey.

The Finesse Game

Forty-two shots in thirty-three games. The median travels 18 feet and 56 per cent came from inside twenty — the closest shot chart of any Dallas forward, and it produced two goals.

85.2 mph off the stick, which is soft, with the standing caveat that a maximum is a season best and a third of a season is a third of the chances at one.

No power-play time worth the name. Four points in thirty-three games.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 190.

22.7 mph and 3.0 bursts over 20 mph a game — quick, and the sprint rate is the interesting half: at eleven minutes a night he was above twenty miles an hour three times a game. 1.81 miles a game is very little ground, which is what eleven minutes buys.

Six penalty minutes in thirty-three games.

The Intangibles

One hundred and forty-third overall in 2017, the fifth round, and 41 NHL games across two seasons at 23.

With Jamie Benn he took 58.9 per cent of the chances over 172 attempts and with Tyler Seguin 61.7 over 125. Both are fragments — a hundred and fifty attempts is under two hours of hockey — and both are better than either of those men managed over a season. The right way to read that is that it is too small to read.

A fifth-round winger with 41 games at 23, on a club with a settled top six. The path is the fourth line and the number that would justify it is the shot chart, which says he gets to the middle. Whether he can do it for a season is not something 358 minutes can answer.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 358 minutes

Expected goals
52.1%
71st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48.2%
39th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 9 for, 15 against. Expected: 15.2 and 14.0.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
2nd
Numbers
71st

The numbers rank him 69 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 45 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 33 games

Top speed
22.7 mph
79th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
2.97 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.81 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
85.2 mph
40th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with NJD · 194 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
DAL took 51.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 52.1% — 1.1 above the club he did it on.
The role
358 minutes at five-on-five — 11th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Jamie Benn58.9%49.3%46.9%
Tyler Seguin61.7%49.3%45.5%
Ryan Suter47.9%53.3%51.7%

58.9% together, 49.3% for him apart and 46.9% for Benn apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

54 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 2 of them goals. His median goal came from 38 feet. 56% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 11% from beyond forty.