Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

26

Marcus Pettersson

Pittsburgh Penguins Defense

The 2nd-fewest giveaways per 60 of all 202 defencemen, at 6-5 and 174 pounds.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18ANA22134+56000166.313:37
2018-19ANA/PIT8422325+1766100872.316:41
2019-20PIT6922022+935000792.519:24
2020-21PIT47279+822000464.316:29
2021-22PIT7221719+838000832.415:39
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—29497079+471671003112.916:48

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

72 games, 2 goals and 17 assists at 15:39 a night, plus-8, thirty-eight penalty minutes, 83 shots. Thirty-eighth overall in 2014 by Anaheim, five seasons, 294 games, 79 points.

The Finesse Game

0.75 giveaways per 60 is the 2nd-fewest of all 202 defencemen who played forty games. Jan Rutta, arriving from Tampa Bay, is 4th-fewest at 0.87.

Pittsburgh’s blue line now holds two of the four most careful defencemen in the league — alongside Jeff Petry, who gave it away more than any of the 202, and Evgeni Malkin, who gave it away more than any of the 393 forwards.

1.05 even-strength points per 60 is the 64th percentile at fifteen minutes a night, which is a real rate for a third-pair workload, and none of his points came on the power play.

4.42 shots per 60 at 2.4 per cent — two goals from eighty-three attempts, the 14th percentile.

Ninety-three per cent of his attempts came from outside the slot at a 53-foot median, and he is 6-5 and 174 pounds — the lightest defenceman in this book six-foot-five or taller, by twenty-one pounds.

55.2 per cent of the expected goals and 53.8 per cent of the attempts, out of 45.8 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 200th-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts. That is the hardest chair of any defenceman who played the season in Pittsburgh, and it produced the second-best share on the blue line.

The Physical Game

6.49 hits per 60 is the 79th percentile at 174 pounds, which is not what the weight predicts, and 3.94 blocks the 46th.

0.59 penalties drawn per 60 against 1.01 taken, the 81st percentile, and thirty-eight penalty minutes came out of seventy-two games. The one soft column.

The Intangibles

21.5 mph is the 29th percentile and 1.0 bursts per 60 the 27th, against 8.72 miles per 60 at the 81st. He covers a lot of ground slowly, which for a 6-5 defenceman playing a defensive chair is the expected shape.

Fifteen minutes and thirty-nine seconds a night is the 12th percentile of the position. That is a third-pair workload attached to top-pair possession numbers, and the gap between those two is the argument of the file.

He is 26 with 294 games and seventy-nine points. The giveaway rate, the reach and the shares out of the hardest chair on the blue line are three real things. The scoring, the shot and the penalties taken are why nobody has yet given him twenty minutes.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • defends-with-reacha strength· takes the puck before the contact happens

    “Ninety-three per cent of his attempts came from outside the slot at a 53-foot median, and he is 6-5 and 174 pounds — the lightest defenceman in this book six-foot-five or taller, by twenty-one pounds.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,090 minutes

Expected goals
55.2%
87th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53.8%
83rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 42 for, 37 against. Expected: 44.5 and 36.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
53rd
Numbers
87th

The numbers rank him 34 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 61 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 72 games

Top speed
21.5 mph
48th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.25 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.27 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
92.7 mph
53rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1090 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
PIT took 53.5% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 55.2% — 1.7 above the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 1,090 minutes at five-on-five — 75th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
John Marino54.6%56.2%49.1%
Kasperi Kapanen55.6%55.0%52.9%
Jeff Carter52.9%56.0%48.3%

54.6% together, 56.2% for him apart and 49.1% for Marino apart. Marino was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Marino than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

136 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 2 of them goals. His median goal came from 23 feet. 4% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 79% from beyond forty.