Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

24

Lias Andersson

Los Angeles Kings Center

Seventh overall in 2017, 109 NHL games, seventeen points — and the worst on-ice goal record of any King last season.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18NYR7112+10000520.011:57
2018-19NYR42246-1329010414.910:43
2019-20NYR17011-84000130.09:33
2020-21LAK23336-4120002313.012:04
2021-22LAK20112-712001293.510:37
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—10971017-31570111116.310:53

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

Twenty games, one goal and one assist, 10:37 a night, minus-7. Twelve penalty minutes, at 23.

Seventh overall by the Rangers in 2017. Five seasons, 109 NHL games, 17 points.

The Finesse Game

Two hundred five-on-five minutes is far below the qualifying lines, and the raw record inside them is bleak. His ice went 3-10 against an expectation of 8.63-10.30 — three goals for, in two hundred minutes. The chance share was 45.6 per cent, so the finishing collapse is doing much of the damage and the underlying number is bad on its own.

Twenty-nine shots, one goal, 3.4 per cent.

And the deployment removes the obvious excuse: 59.6 per cent of his end-zone starts came in the attacking end, the softest treatment any King forward received. He was being protected and the ice still went 3-10.

The pair file has one bright row and it is small. With Alexander Edler across 103 attempts he took 61.7 per cent; without Edler, 38.1.

The Physical Game

Twelve penalty minutes in twenty games. 1.78 miles a game is the 6th percentile of the 568 skaters who played forty — the least ground covered of any King, and near the bottom of the league.

He is 6-0 and 185 and the record shows no physical dimension to lean on.

The Intangibles

21.5 mph is the 13th percentile and 1.0 sprints a game is the 50th. He is not fast, and the ground-covered number says he is not compensating with volume of work either.

This is the hardest kind of report to write honestly. A seventh overall pick with 17 points in 109 games across five years, at 23, in a fourth-line role he is not holding. Nothing in the data suggests a turn is coming, and nothing in it forecloses one — twenty games is twenty games. The record simply is what it is, and pretending otherwise would not help anyone reading this.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 200 minutes

Expected goals
45.6%
21st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
46.9%
28th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 3 for, 10 against. Expected: 8.6 and 10.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
1st
Numbers
21st

The numbers rank him 20 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 44 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 20 games

Top speed
21.5 mph
24th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.00 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.78 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
90.7 mph
70th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 200 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
LAK took 52.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 45.6% — 7.2 below the club he did it on.
The role
200 minutes at five-on-five — 0th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Rasmus Kupari53.2%40.1%45.0%
Carl Grundstrom42.2%46.7%50.3%
Sean Durzi43.4%46.5%52.4%

53.2% together, 40.1% for him apart and 45.0% for Kupari apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

33 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 15 feet. 45% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 21% from beyond forty.