This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2025-26 report →
Justin Danforth
Columbus Blue Jackets Right Wing
A twenty-nine-year-old undrafted rookie with the lowest giveaway rate of the 393 qualified forwards.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | CBJ | 45 | 10 | 4 | 14 | -5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 72 | 13.9 | 12:34 |
| 2022-23 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 45 | 10 | 4 | 14 | -5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 72 | 13.9 | 12:34 |
This Season So Far
The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
10 goals and 4 assists in 45 games — 14 points at 12:34 a night, minus-5, with 10 penalty minutes.
48.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 522 minutes, the 36th percentile among forwards — the highest chance share of any Columbus forward who cleared 500 minutes. His ice went 21-27 against an expectation of 21.29-22.85.
He was 28 when he played his first NHL game, after five years in Finland, Russia and the ECHL.
The Finesse Game
7.64 shots per 60 is the 58th percentile among forwards and 13.9 per cent of them went in. Ten goals in 45 games from a fourth-line role.
0.21 giveaways per 60 is the lowest rate of the 393 qualified forwards. That is not a small edge over the field — the second-lowest is more than twice it — and it comes with 1.59 takeaways per 60 at the 48th percentile.
The Physical Game
5-8 and 193. 9.02 hits per 60 is the 85th percentile among forwards and 2.33 blocks is the 79th, from the smallest man on the roster.
17.9 bursts over 20 mph per 60 is the 98th percentile among forwards, against a top speed of 22.9 mph at the 79th. He is not the fastest man on the ice and he gets to top gear more often than almost anyone, which is what a relentless forechecker looks like in the tracking data.
1.38 penalties drawn per 60 is the 90th percentile and his drawn-minus-taken of plus-0.85 is the 97th. He is fouled constantly and he almost never fouls.
The Intangibles
Undrafted out of Sacred Heart, and 45 NHL games at 29.
Ten goals on a fourth line at 29, in a first NHL season. On a club whose top six is being rebuilt around a July signing, he is the cheapest useful thing in the room.
What kind of player
The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.
- a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.
“He was 28 when he played his first NHL game, after five years in Finland, Russia and the ECHL.”
“He is not the fastest man on the ice and he gets to top gear more often than almost anyone, which is what a relentless forechecker looks like in the tracking data.”
“He is fouled constantly and he almost never fouls.”
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 522 minutes
- Expected goals
- 48.2%
- 40th pct
- Shot attempts
- 51.7%
- 71st pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 21 for, 27 against. Expected: 21.3 and 22.9.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe report ranks him 34 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 66 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Tracked
NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 45 games
- Top speed
- 22.9 mph
- 86th pct
- Bursts over 20 mph
- 3.76 a game
- Distance
- 2.06 miles a game
- Hardest shot
- 84.9 mph
- 39th pct
fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0
how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes
skated, all strengths
one shot; the league's average best is 84.1
A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.
Usual linemates
2021-22 · 522 minutes at five-on-five
- Sean Kuraly41%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2021-22
- The club
- CBJ took 44.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.2% — 3.4 above the club he did it on.
- The role
- 522 minutes at five-on-five — 20th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vladislav Gavrikov | 54.6% | 42.7% | 43.7% |
| Sean Kuraly | 48.4% | 48.1% | 45.2% |
| Andrew Peeke | 46.4% | 49.3% | 43.3% |
54.6% together, 42.7% for him apart and 43.7% for Gavrikov apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
105 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 10 of them goals. His median goal came from 11 feet. 42% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 27% from beyond forty.