Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2023-24 report →

72

Travis Boyd

Arizona Coyotes Center

Seventeen goals off 88 shots at 19.3 per cent, from a median of 17 feet, with the softest shot in the league — a 28-year-old career year with nothing repeatable in it.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18WSH8011+2200020.08:50
2018-19WSH5351520+660013514.39:50
2019-20WSH243710+920002611.511:45
2020-21TOR/VAN395510-521002321.710:44
2021-22ARI74171835-10342028819.316:31
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—198304676+24630317417.212:42

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

17 goals and 18 assists in 74 games — 35 points at 16:31 a night, minus-10, with 2 power-play goals on 88 shots and 34 penalty minutes.

Seventeen goals off 88 attempts is 19.3 per cent, the 96th percentile among the league’s forwards, from a man who had 30 goals in 198 career games before this season.

43.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,019 minutes, the 7th percentile. His ice went 53-60 against an expectation of 34.64-45.48 — eighteen goals of scoring above what the chances predicted and fifteen more conceded than they did, which is the largest pair of gaps on the club and belongs to Arizona’s shooting luck and its goaltending rather than to him.

Beside Dysin Mayo he took 34.1 per cent across 549 attempts; away from Mayo, 47.3.

The Finesse Game

67 per cent of his shots came from the slot, the 95th percentile, at a median of 17 feet. The locations are as good as anybody’s here, and that is genuinely why the puck went in.

What will not survive is the volume and the velocity. 4.32 shots per 60 is the 3rd percentile among forwards and the shot leaves his stick at 79.1 mph — the 1st percentile, the softest recorded release of any forward in this book. He scores by standing in the right place and putting the puck somewhere a goaltender is not, four times a game, and one season in ten that produces seventeen goals.

0.98 takeaways per 60 at the 9th percentile. He is not winning pucks; he is arriving where they end up.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 190, and 2.70 blocks per 60 is the 87th percentile among forwards against 3.49 hits at the 44th. He defends by filling a lane rather than by finishing a check, which suits a man with no speed to spare.

Top speed 21.4 mph and 2.59 miles a game. He is slow and he does not cover ground, and both of those are permanent at 29.

The Intangibles

One hundred and seventy-seventh overall in 2011 by Washington, eight professional seasons, most of them in Hershey, and 198 NHL games.

He is 29. This is what a career year looks like on a last-place club: real goals, real minutes, and every underlying number saying it happened once. Arizona should enjoy it and should not pay for it.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    67.4% of his attempts in the slot, 95th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “67 per cent of his shots came from the slot, the 95th percentile, at a median of 17 feet”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,019 minutes

Expected goals
43.2%
11th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
42.5%
5th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 53 for, 60 against. Expected: 34.6 and 45.5.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
13th
Numbers
11th

The two rank him within 2 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 52 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 74 games

Top speed
21.4 mph
22nd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.36 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.59 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
79.1 mph
20th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 1019 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
ARI took 42.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 43.2% — 0.4 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 1,019 minutes at five-on-five — 64th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Clayton Keller45.6%40.5%46.9%
Nick Schmaltz45.0%41.7%48.5%
Shayne Gostisbehere41.5%44.4%43.0%

45.6% together, 40.5% for him apart and 46.9% for Keller apart. He was worse away from Keller, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Keller did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

132 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 17 of them goals. His median goal came from 12 feet. 55% of his shots came from inside twenty feet.