Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2024-25 report →

15

Dryden Hunt

New York Rangers Left Wing

The 89th-percentile hit rate and the 87th for penalties drawn, on the 10th-percentile shooting rate.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2017-18FLA11011-52000120.010:34
2018-19FLA31371008000535.711:04
2019-20FLA21044024000330.010:30
2020-21ARI26358-64000397.711:58
2021-22NYR7661117-1052002946.412:17
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—165122840-21900022315.211:40

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

76 games, 6 goals and 11 assists at 12:17 a night, minus-10, fifty-two penalty minutes, 94 shots. Undrafted, and 165 NHL games with three clubs out of it. Five seasons, 40 points.

Seventeen points is a career high, beating the ten of 2018-19.

The Finesse Game

6.04 shots per 60 is the 27th percentile at 6.4 per cent, the 10th. Ninety-four shots produced six goals.

Sixty-one per cent of them came from the slot at a 19-foot median — the 81st and 12th percentiles. The places are right and almost nothing went in, which on ninety-four shots is as likely to be the sample as the man.

1.11 even-strength points per 60 is the 12th percentile and none of his points came on the power play.

47.8 per cent of the expected goals and 48.5 per cent of the attempts, out of 55.6 per cent offensive-zone starts, the 163rd-highest of 652 skaters — soft usage and below-average results.

His ice went 24-42 against an expectation of 33.27-36.34 — nine goals short going forward and six more against than the model asked. On the club with the 2nd-best goaltending in the league, that is a genuinely bad line.

The Physical Game

9.83 hits per 60 is the 89th percentile among forwards and 1.29 penalties drawn per 60 the 87th, from a winger playing twelve minutes a night.

1.16 penalties taken per 60 is the 84th percentile and fifty-two penalty minutes came out of seventy-six games. 1.09 blocks per 60 is the 20th — the contact is all forechecking and none of it is in front of his own net.

The Intangibles

21.5 mph is the 7th-slowest top speed of the 365 forwards the tracking covers, at 3.7 bursts per 60 in the 29th percentile and 9.74 miles per 60 in the 57th.

He is 26, undrafted, and had never scored more than three goals in a season before this one. The hits, the penalties drawn and the shot locations are a real bottom-six identity, and the goals-for on his ice is the reason it is a fourth line rather than a third.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • forechecks-aggressivelya strength· first man in, and on the puck

    “9.83 hits per 60 is the 89th percentile among forwards and 1.29 penalties drawn per 60 the 87th, from a winger playing twelve minutes a night.”

  • undrafteda strength· arrived without a pick attached

    “Undrafted, and 165 NHL games with three clubs out of it.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 912 minutes

Expected goals
47.8%
37th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
48.5%
41st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 24 for, 42 against. Expected: 33.3 and 36.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
26th
Numbers
37th

The two rank him within 11 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 55 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 76 games

Top speed
21.5 mph
24th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.75 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.99 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
93.2 mph
83rd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 912 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
NYR took 46.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.8% — 1.1 above the club he did it on.
The role
First line, 912 minutes at five-on-five — 52nd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Artemi Panarin48.6%47.2%46.7%
Ryan Strome47.0%48.4%48.3%
Jacob Trouba50.9%45.9%46.8%

48.6% together, 47.2% for him apart and 46.7% for Panarin apart. Splitting them up moved neither man. Whatever is driving the share, it is not this pairing.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

142 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 6 of them goals. His median goal came from 21 feet. 54% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 20% from beyond forty.