Armchair Hockey Scout

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2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2023-24 edition — an archived read. Read the 2024-25 report →

25

Alec Martinez

Vegas Golden Knights Defense

A hundred-mile-an-hour shot, fifty-two shots from the point, and no goals.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2009-10LAK4000-2200060.015:25
2010-11LAK6051116+1118100746.815:17
2011-12LAK516612-18300787.714:43
2012-13LAK27145-210000303.316:01
2013-14LAK61111122+17143027913.915:41
2014-15LAK5661622+9101011035.819:56
2015-16LAK78102131+16404041248.121:09
2016-17LAK8293039-17242131446.321:38
2017-18LAK7791625+3342001118.122:52
2018-19LAK6041418-28002785.121:22
2019-20LAK/VGK5131316-423000754.021:30
2020-21VGK5392332+26123028510.622:34
2021-22VGK26358+64000329.419:32
2022-23VGK7731114+3029012764.019:13
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—76379181260+902361921610957.219:38

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

3 goals and 11 assists in 77 games — 14 points — at 19:13 a night. Plus-30, 76 shots at 3.9 per cent, one shorthanded, 29 penalty minutes.

Seventy-seven games at thirty-five, after 26 the season before.

50.5 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five across 1,302 minutes, the 50th percentile, with his ice at 63-49 against an expectation of 55.31-54.28 — eight more goals scored than the chances called for and five fewer allowed, which is where a plus-30 out of a dead-even chance share comes from.

He started 46.3 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 31st percentile: 357 attacking draws against 414 defensive ones.

The Finesse Game

76 shots at a median of 54 feet, with 76 per cent of his attempts from beyond forty and 16 per cent from inside twenty.

Beyond forty feet: 52 shots on goal and no goals. From twenty to forty: seven shots and one goal. Inside twenty: 16 shots and two goals.

And here is the cleanest single case this edition has produced. His shot is measured at 100.3 mph, the 97th percentile — the hardest on this roster and one of the fifteen hardest of any defenceman in this book — he slaps 21.4 per cent of his attempts, he took fifty-two shots on goal from beyond forty feet, and not one of them went in.

A hundred miles an hour, from the point, fifty-two times, for nothing.

This book spent an edition arguing itself out of the idea that shot velocity from the point buys goals. Alec Martinez is the sentence at the end of the argument.

79 goals in 763 career games at 7.2 per cent, and three last season.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 210 pounds, with 29 penalty minutes in 77 games and 236 in 763 career games.

A top speed of 21.3 mph, the 8th percentile, and 0.3 bursts above twenty a game, the 8th. He covers 2.55 miles a game, the 47th.

So Vegas’s second pair, at even strength, contained the slowest skater in this book and a thirty-five-year-old in the bottom tenth of the league beside him, and it held a fifty per cent chance share against the 31st percentile of starts.

He blocks shots, and the reputation was built over fourteen seasons and two Stanley Cups in Los Angeles.

He is punishing in front of his own net and the physical game has held up better than the feet.

The skating is gone. That is measured, not read, and it is what a thirty-five-year-old defenceman playing nineteen minutes a night is entitled to.

The Intangibles

Ninety-fifth overall in 2007, the fourth round, fourteen seasons, 763 games, 260 points across Los Angeles and Vegas, and three Stanley Cups — Los Angeles in 2012 and 2014, and here.

79 goals and 181 assists, and a plus-90.

He is thirty-six, and he scored the overtime goal that won the 2014 Final.

A fourth-round pick with seven hundred and sixty games and three Cups is a career almost nobody has had. The file now is a slow, willing, shot-blocking second-pair defenceman with fourteen points, and the club will take it for as long as the plus column holds.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • shot-blockera strength· gets in front of it

    “He blocks shots, and the reputation was built over fourteen seasons and two Stanley Cups in Los Angeles.”

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He is punishing in front of his own net and the physical game has held up better than the feet.”

  • edgeshe lacks it· changes direction at speed; the forechecker commits and he is gone

    “The skating is gone. That is measured, not read, and it is what a thirty-five-year-old defenceman playing nineteen minutes a night is entitled to.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 1,302 minutes

Expected goals
50.5%
57th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
45.6%
20th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 63 for, 49 against. Expected: 55.3 and 54.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
62nd
Numbers
57th

The two rank him within 5 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 68 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 77 games

Top speed
21.3 mph
37th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.26 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.55 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
100.3 mph
96th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.0

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 · 1302 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
VGK took 51.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.5% — 0.5 below the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,302 minutes at five-on-five — 90th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Alex Pietrangelo52.8%44.1%50.0%
Chandler Stephenson54.5%48.9%50.6%
Jonathan Marchessault55.2%48.7%50.6%

52.8% together, 44.1% for him apart and 50.0% for Pietrangelo apart. He was worse away from Pietrangelo, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Pietrangelo did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

115 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 9 feet. 16% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 76% from beyond forty.