Armchair Hockey Scout Beta

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

18

A.J. Greer

Florida Panthers Left Wing

130 penalty minutes in nine and a half minutes a night, and a 54.9 per cent chance share doing it.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2016-17COL5011-2400080.013:39
2017-18COL17033+229000130.07:24
2018-19COL15112-214000911.16:16
2020-21NJD10000700008:33
2021-22NJD911202000147.17:51
2022-23BOS615712+9114001667.69:07
2023-24CGY596612-7351005710.58:50
2024-25FLA8161117+4130013867.09:36
2025-26 so far
Career248193049+43351142537.58:58

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

6 goals and 11 assists in 81 games for 17 points, plus-4, on 9:36 a night with 130 penalty minutes — the most on the club by 40.

54.9 per cent at five-on-five, the 90th percentile, over 698 minutes. 48 per cent of his shots came from inside 20 feet. A fourth-line winger with a top-line chance share, which is what this club does to fourth lines.

The Finesse Game

Limited. 86 shots in 81 games and 6 goals, and 11 assists — there is no offensive game to project.

What he does is get the puck deep and go and get it, and on a club whose whole identity is winning pucks back that is a genuine contribution rather than an excuse.

The Physical Game

6-3 and 224, and among the more feared fourth-line forwards in the league. He hits, he fights, and he is very difficult to play against below the goal line.

130 penalty minutes in 81 games at nine and a half minutes a night is an enormous rate. On a club with the 6th-best penalty kill the marginal cost is lower than most, and it is still a cost.

The Intangibles

A second-round pick, five organisations, and an NHL job built entirely on being willing.

At 28 the projection is unchanged. He is the enforcement arm of a club that has decided being unpleasant is a competitive advantage, and the two Cups suggest it is right.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 698 minutes

Expected goals
54.9%
91st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.8%
81st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 34 for, 32 against. Expected: 29.4 and 24.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
47th
Numbers
91st

The numbers rank him 44 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 357 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 72 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 698 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
FLA took 54.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 54.9% — 0.9 above the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 698 minutes at five-on-five — 28th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Tomas Nosek57.7%50.7%
Jonah Gadjovich53.9%55.4%
Nate Schmidt58.4%53.1%55.9%

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

121 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 6 of them goals. His median goal came from 33 feet. 49% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 21% from beyond forty.