Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

16

Tyler Benson

Edmonton Oilers Left Wing

The softest recorded shot of the 649 skaters the league tracking covers — 73.1 mph.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2019-20EDM7011-1000050.010:23
2021-22EDM29112-518000185.68:33
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—36123-618000234.38:54

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

1 goal and 1 assist in 29 games — 2 points, a minus-5 and 18 penalty minutes at 8:33 a night.

Twenty-nine games and 249 minutes is far short of the 40 games and 500 minutes this book requires, so there is no peer group and nothing here is a percentile. 47.2 per cent of the expected goals across four hours of five-on-five. His ice went 6-12 against an expectation of 8.33-9.31.

Four hours is a long weekend and this section should be read as one.

The Finesse Game

73.1 mph is the softest recorded shot of the 649 skaters the league’s tracking covers. Not the softest among forwards, or among fourth-liners: the softest of everybody it measured. Colton White’s 75.2 is the next one up.

A maximum is a season best, and twenty-nine games is a quarter of the chances to set a high one — but a quarter-season maximum of 73 mph is still a long way below the next man’s, and the gap is two miles an hour.

Eighteen shots in twenty-nine games, one of which went in. The median travels 32 feet and 13 per cent came from inside twenty — the most distant chart of any Edmonton forward, which is a difficult combination with the softest shot in the league.

No power-play time.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 190. 1.38 miles a game is very little, and eight and a half minutes a night explains most of it. 21.0 mph top speed and 0.6 bursts over 20 mph a game.

Eighteen penalty minutes in twenty-nine games.

The Intangibles

Thirty-second overall in 2016, the second round, and 36 NHL games at 24 with 3 points, spread across two seasons.

He is from Edmonton and was drafted by Edmonton, and six years later the record is thirty-six games. A second-round winger who reaches 24 with three NHL points is at the end of the runway, and the softest shot the league has ever measured is not the file of a man about to score his way onto a roster.

What the repo cannot see is the passing, which was the argument for him at the draft and remains the only one available.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 249 minutes

Expected goals
47.2%
33rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53.1%
79th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 6 for, 12 against. Expected: 8.3 and 9.3.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
0th
Numbers
33rd

The numbers rank him 33 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 42 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 29 games

Top speed
21.0 mph
13th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.62 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.38 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
73.1 mph
9th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 249 minutes at five-on-five

  • Colton Sceviouroff the roster39%
  • Kyle Turrisoff the roster27%

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
EDM took 51.3% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.2% — 4.1 below the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 249 minutes at five-on-five — 5th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Colton Sceviour53.0%44.4%48.0%
Ryan McLeod42.3%49.3%49.7%
Cody Ceci53.1%44.7%51.3%

53.0% together, 44.4% for him apart and 48.0% for Sceviour apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

24 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 1 of them goals. His median goal came from 5 feet. 13% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 21% from beyond forty.