Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

46

Jared Spurgeon

Minnesota Wild Defense

Five-foot-nine and 166 pounds, a sixth-round pick, 772 games — and the fewest giveaways of all 202 qualified defencemen.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2010-11MIN534812-122013810.515:04
2011-12MIN7032023-46201923.321:36
2012-13MIN3951015+14402677.521:33
2013-14MIN6752126+1516201915.522:38
2014-15MIN6691625+363021287.022:37
2015-16MIN77111829+11145021229.022:41
2016-17MIN76102838+33201021446.924:02
2017-18MIN6192837-683021108.224:33
2018-19MIN82142943-1204001529.224:09
2019-20MIN62122032-11830211210.722:34
2020-21MIN5471825-26300947.422:05
2021-22MIN65103040+32100021168.621:09
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—77299246345+801303201712667.822:15

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

10 goals and 30 assists in sixty-five games at 21:09 a night, plus-32, with ten penalty minutes. Twelve seasons, 772 games, 345 points, a career plus-80.

A 156th-overall pick who is 5-9 and 166 pounds has played 772 NHL games, scored 345 points and carries a career plus-80.

The Finesse Game

0.61 giveaways per 60 is the fewest of all 202 qualified defencemen, from a man who plays 21:09 a night and quarterbacks a power play. That is the number to hold onto. The whole objection to a small defenceman is that pressure takes the puck off him, and the league’s own scorekeepers say nobody at his position loses it less.

1.49 even-strength points per 60 is the 18th-best of 202 and 35 per cent of his points came on the power play, off 3:02 a night, the 93rd percentile.

8.6 per cent shooting is the 93rd percentile among defencemen on 5.06 shots per 60 — ten goals, from a 45-foot median that is the 5th percentile for distance. He shoots from closer than nearly every defenceman in the league and converts better than nearly all of them.

56.5 per cent of the expected goals is the 93rd percentile and 55.6 per cent of the attempts the 91st. His ice went 56-28 against an expectation of 42.66-32.82.

Joel Eriksson Ek took 64.3 per cent of the chances beside him across 466 attempts — the highest pair figure on the club. With Alex Goligoski across 948, 57.1, against Goligoski’s 52.5 alone.

The Physical Game

1.92 hits per 60 is the 14th percentile and 3.62 blocks the 32nd. At 166 pounds he does not initiate contact and does not throw himself in front of pucks, and the club plays him twenty-one minutes anyway.

0.22 penalties taken per 60 is the 11th-fewest of 202 — ten penalty minutes in sixty-five games. He also drew almost nothing, 0.13 per 60, the 5th percentile. He is simply not in the physical part of the game in either direction.

The Intangibles

2.9 bursts over 20 mph per 60 is the 83rd percentile and 8.71 miles per 60 the 80th, at a top speed of 22.1 mph, the 58th. He is not fast; he moves constantly and accelerates often, which is a different thing and the more useful one.

89.9 mph is the 14th percentile — one of the softest shots among defencemen — and he still shot 8.6 per cent, because of where he takes them.

This is the profile worth studying: a small right-handed defenceman who wins the possession battle without weight, without a shot, and without ever giving the puck away. What the data cannot show is the part that makes it work — gap, angle, and the stick that arrives before the body does. It can only show that the results are there, twelve seasons running.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • hard-shot· beats a goaltender from range

    4 of 97 attempts from 40 feet or beyond, 4.1%, 92nd percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.21) · 16% keep it

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.15 penalty minutes a game over 65, 5th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    56.5% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 52.7% for his club in the minutes he sat: +3.8, 91st percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “0.61 giveaways per 60 is the fewest of all 202 qualified defencemen, from a man who plays 21:09 a night and quarterbacks a power play.”

  • leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it

    “A 156th-overall pick who is 5-9 and 166 pounds has played 772 NHL games, scored 345 points and carries a career plus-80.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 983 minutes

Expected goals
56.5%
92nd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
55.6%
90th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 56 for, 28 against. Expected: 42.7 and 32.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
84th
Numbers
92nd

The two rank him within 8 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 69 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 65 games

Top speed
22.1 mph
72nd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
1.02 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
3.07 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
89.9 mph
35th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 983 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
MIN took 53.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 56.5% — 2.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
Third pair, 983 minutes at five-on-five — 59th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Alex Goligoski57.1%55.9%52.5%
Kirill Kaprizov56.9%56.3%54.5%
Ryan Hartman53.4%57.8%55.5%

57.1% together, 55.9% for him apart and 52.5% for Goligoski apart. Goligoski was worse away from him while his own share held — the pairing was doing more for Goligoski than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

156 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 10 of them goals. His median goal came from 38 feet. 12% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 62% from beyond forty.