Armchair Scout
Jake Guentzel

Photo by Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0

Jake Guentzel

Tampa Bay Lightning Center #59

Eighty-eight points, and fifty-nine per cent of his shots from inside twenty feet.

SeasonGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2025-2681385088+136182522017.320:15
Career681306353659+10031774441193015.819:22

Last Season

Thirty-eight goals and 50 assists in 81 games — 88 points, plus-13, at 20:15 a night with eight power-play goals and 61 penalty minutes.

His 681st career game and his 659th point. Three hundred and six career goals.

The Finesse Game

The most efficient shot chart of any high-volume scorer in this edition. Three hundred and seventeen unblocked attempts with 59 per cent of them from inside twenty feet, a median of sixteen, and only eleven per cent from beyond forty — and thirty-six goals.

That is nearly four hundred attempts a season taken almost entirely from the slot, by a five-foot-eleven, 176-pound winger. It is the single most impressive location profile in this book.

Fifty assists says the rest of it.

The Physical Game

Five foot eleven and 176 pounds, and he does his work in the most dangerous ice on the rink at that weight. Sixty-one penalty minutes.

He is not strong and does not win battles by force. He gets to the crease by timing the play and accepts what happens when he arrives, which is why the penalty minutes are high and the games missed are not.

The Intangibles

Fifty-three point six per cent of the expected goals, 81st percentile, and 53 per cent of the shot attempts, 82nd, across 1,146 minutes, with the goals level at 52-52.

Twelve points in his last ten, five of them goals.

He is 31, a third-round pick, and spent seven years being Sidney Crosby’s winger while people argued about how much of it was Crosby. Eighty-eight points on a different club in a different conference settles that.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2025-26 · 1146 minutes

Expected goals
53.6%
81st pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
53%
82nd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 52 for, 52 against. Expected: 52.7 and 45.6.

The eye and the numbers

Report
80
Numbers
81

The eye and the numbers broadly agree on him.

Recent form

Last 20 appearances, 2025-26, oldest first

12

points in his last 10 games — 5 goals, 7 assists, 32 shots

Each bar is one game by points. Filled bars are games he scored in.

Usual linemates

2025-26 · 1146 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

317 unblocked shots in 2025-26, 36 of them goals. His median goal came from 13 feet. 59% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 11% from beyond forty.