Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

24

Jacob Peterson

Dallas Stars Center

Twelve goals and five assists as a rookie at eleven minutes a night, and five of the twelve won the game.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22DAL6512517-1120058514.111:04
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—6512517-1120058514.111:04

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

12 goals and 5 assists in 65 games — 17 points, a minus-1 and 12 penalty minutes at 11:04 a night, the 7th percentile among forwards. Five of the twelve goals won the game.

49.5 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 662 minutes, the 49th percentile, against 45.4 per cent of the attempts, the 13th. That gap is the shape of a fourth line that gets outshot and gets the better chances.

The Finesse Game

Twelve goals and five assists is a ratio almost no forward posts. At this ice time it is mostly noise, and what it is not is a playmaker: twelve of his seventeen points were goals.

7.09 shots per 60 is the 47th percentile and twelve on 85 is 14.1 per cent, the 74th. 55 per cent came from the slot at a median of 22 feet — a fourth-line rookie shooting from the right places.

1.43 even-strength points per 60 is the 28th percentile and 0:43 a night on the power play is the 29th.

84.5 mph is the 14th percentile — the softest shot of any Dallas forward the tracking qualifies, which sits oddly beside twelve goals and is worth remembering when the finishing comes back to earth.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 180, which is light.

1.84 hits per 60 is the 17th percentile and 1.92 blocks the 60th. He does not play a contact game and at that weight there is no argument that he should.

22.9 mph is the 78th percentile and 9.37 miles per 60 is the 27th — quick enough, covering little, on eleven minutes.

0.50 penalties taken per 60 is the 33rd percentile, twelve minutes in sixty-five games.

The Intangibles

One hundred and thirty-second overall in 2017, the fifth round, and this was his first NHL season at 22.

With Alexander Radulov he took 54.0 per cent of the chances over 662 attempts and 44.6 without him — and Radulov is not on this roster, which makes the best number on his page a departed one.

Twelve goals from a fifth-round rookie at eleven minutes is a genuinely good first season. The five game-winners are the kind of figure a club talks itself into, and the shot speed and the assist column are the reasons to be careful about it.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 662 minutes

Expected goals
49.5%
53rd pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
45.4%
17th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 23 for, 22 against. Expected: 28.2 and 28.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
3rd
Numbers
53rd

The numbers rank him 50 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 46 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 65 games

Top speed
22.9 mph
86th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.77 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.73 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
84.5 mph
36th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 662 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
DAL took 51.0% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 49.5% — 1.5 below the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 662 minutes at five-on-five — 28th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Alexander Radulov54.0%44.6%50.6%
Ryan Suter49.5%49.5%52.0%
John Klingberg45.2%51.7%52.7%

54.0% together, 44.6% for him apart and 50.6% for Radulov apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

112 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 13 of them goals. His median goal came from 11 feet. 42% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 19% from beyond forty.