Armchair Hockey Scout

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2024-25 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2024-25 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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21

Isac Lundeström

Anaheim Ducks Center

Two penalty minutes in forty-six games, and his ice came out 14-17 on a team that lost fifty.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19ANA15022-12000130.013:02
2019-20ANA15044-20000100.013:55
2020-21ANA41639-9140005211.515:15
2021-22ANA80161329-380438319.315:29
2022-23ANA6141014-132010606.714:20
2023-24ANA465611-120103813.214:20
2024-25 so far—————————————
Career—258313869-292806325612.114:44

This Season So Far

The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

5 goals and 6 assists in 46 games — 11 points at 14:20 a night, minus-1, with 1 shorthanded goal on 38 shots, converting at 13.16 per cent, and 2 penalty minutes.

Two penalty minutes in forty-six games is the lowest rate on this roster and one of the lowest in the edition.

48.7 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 539 minutes, the 43rd percentile. His ice went 14-17 against an expectation of 18.22-19.22 — twelve goals scored above expectation and two conceded below it, on a club that was outscored by ninety-one. It is 539 minutes and it should be read as such, but it is the only positive goal differential on the roster.

The Finesse Game

38 attempts at a median of 12 feet, with 65 per cent from inside 20 and 11 per cent from beyond 40 — the most net-front shot profile on this club by a distance.

He does not shoot much and when he does it is from the paint. Five goals on thirty-eight shots at 13.16 per cent is what shot selection looks like.

6 assists. He is not a creator and the club does not ask him to be.

The Physical Game

6-1 and 192. He forechecks honestly without punishing anybody, and the defending is positional.

Two penalty minutes in forty-six games and 28 in 258 career games. He does not retaliate, he does not take liberties, and there is not a single unnecessary minor in the season.

The Intangibles

Twenty-third overall in 2018, out of Luleå, and 258 games at 24, all of them here.

He wins the draw that begins a penalty kill and he is the first forward over the boards a man short. A first-round pick who becomes a defensively responsible third-line centre is not the outcome anyone drafted, and it is a genuinely useful NHL player.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    71.0% of his attempts in the slot, 98th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.04 penalty minutes a game over 46, 0th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “**38 attempts at a median of 12 feet, with 65 per cent from inside 20 and 11 per cent from beyond 40** — the most net-front shot profile on this club by a distance.”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “**He wins the draw that begins a penalty kill and he is the first forward over the boards a man short.**”

  • faceoffsa strength· takes the draw that starts it

    “**He wins the draw that begins a penalty kill and he is the first forward over the boards a man short.**”

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “A first-round pick who becomes a defensively responsible third-line centre is not the outcome anyone drafted, and it is a genuinely useful NHL player.”

  • retaliateshe lacks it· answers the cross-check, and takes the second penalty

    “He does not retaliate, he does not take liberties, and there is not a single unnecessary minor in the season.”

  • takes-libertieshe lacks it· crosses the line and knows where it is

    “He does not retaliate, he does not take liberties, and there is not a single unnecessary minor in the season.”

  • punishinghe lacks it· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He forechecks honestly without punishing anybody, and the defending is positional.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 539 minutes

Expected goals
48.7%
44th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
44.6%
15th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 14 for, 17 against. Expected: 18.2 and 19.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
27th
Numbers
44th

The two rank him within 17 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 652 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 64 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2023-24 · 46 games

Top speed
22.3 mph
54th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.1

Bursts over 20 mph
1.70 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.27 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
77.8 mph
15th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.5

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2023-24 · 539 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2023-24

The club
ANA took 45.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.7% — 2.8 above the club he did it on.
The role
Third line, 539 minutes at five-on-five — 20th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Jakob Silfverberg54.2%40.8%46.9%
Cam Fowler48.0%49.0%44.2%
Radko Gudas56.9%45.5%47.0%

54.2% together, 40.8% for him apart and 46.9% for Silfverberg apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

62 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 5 of them goals. His median goal came from 24 feet. 66% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 11% from beyond forty.