Armchair Hockey Scout

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2026-27 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2026-27 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

78

Emil Lilleberg

Tampa Bay Lightning Defense

50 games, 61 penalty minutes, and the 70th percentile.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2023-24TBL37055-1516000310.016:12
2024-25TBL7611819-1105001462.215:17
2025-26TBL504812+1561002439.317:18
2026-27 so far—————————————
Career—16353136-11820031204.216:07

This Season So Far

The 2026-27 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

4 goals and 8 assists in 50 games — 12 points, plus-15, at 17:18 a night with 61 penalty minutes. 32 games missed.

The Finesse Game

71 unblocked attempts from a median of 57 feet, 72 per cent from beyond 40, 4 goals. 36 points in 163 career games.

8 assists in 50 games is thin, and the offensive game is not the reason he is in the lineup.

The Physical Game

6-3, 215, and heavy. 61 penalty minutes in 50 games is a high rate and it comes from a Norwegian defenceman who arrived in the league with a reputation for being difficult to play against and has lived up to it.

He clears his crease, blocks shots, and fights when required.

The Intangibles

53.2 per cent of the expected goals, 78th percentile, and 51.6 per cent of the shot attempts, 71st, across 772 minutes, with the goals 41-28 in his favour.

Those are solid third-pair figures on a club where solid third-pair figures are the standard.

6 points in his last 10, 2 of them goals. He is 25, a 107th overall pick out of Arizona, and the fifth or sixth defenceman on a Stanley Cup contender. 32 games missed is the only thing here to worry about.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored

    16.9% of his attempts in the slot, 90th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2025-26 · 772 minutes

Expected goals
53.2%
78th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
51.6%
71st pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 41 for, 28 against. Expected: 31.8 and 28.0.

The eye and the numbers

Sighted
Report
44th
Numbers
78th

The numbers rank him 34 points above where the report does. It was written with these numbers on screen and departs from them anyway, which makes the gap a judgment rather than an oversight. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 656 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 71 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2025-26 · 50 games

Top speed
21.8 mph
54th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.6

Bursts over 20 mph
0.64 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.39 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
89.7 mph
45th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 88.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Recent form

Last 20 appearances, 2025-26, oldest first

6

points in his last 10 games — 2 goals, 4 assists, 15 shots

Each bar is one game by points. Filled bars are games he scored in.

Usual linemates

2025-26 · 772 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2025-26

The club
TBL took 53.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 53.2% — 0.7 below the club he did it on.
The role
Second pair, 772 minutes at five-on-five — 36th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Charle-Edouard D'Astous55.5%50.1%55.5%
Jake Guentzel51.4%53.9%54.8%
Yanni Gourde51.4%53.7%51.1%

55.5% together, 50.1% for him apart and 55.5% for D'Astous apart. He was worse away from D'Astous, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than D'Astous did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

71 unblocked shots in 2025-26, 4 of them goals. His median goal came from 23 feet. 11% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 72% from beyond forty.