Photo by Kenneth C. Zirkel, CC BY 4.0

Collin Graf

Undrafted, 21 goals, and 60 per cent of his shots from inside 20 feet.

Season	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	PP	SH	GW	S	S%	TOI

2023-24	SJS	7	0	2	2	-4	0	0	0	0	7	0.0	16:36
2024-25	SJS	33	5	6	11	-4	8	1	1	1	40	12.5	15:52
2025-26	SJS	81	21	25	46	+6	12	0	2	4	118	17.8	16:27
2026-27 so far	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Career	—	121	26	33	59	-2	20	1	3	5	165	15.8	16:18

This Season So Far

The 2026-27 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

21 goals and 25 assists in 81 games — 46 points, plus-6, at 16:27 a night with 12 penalty minutes.

The Finesse Game

The shot chart is excellent and it is why an undrafted winger scored 21. 60 per cent of his unblocked attempts came from inside 20 feet, median 17, with only 12 per cent from beyond 40.

21 goals from 165 tries. He goes to the net, he arrives on time, and he finishes what gets to him.

25 assists in 16 minutes a night is a fair second-line rate. 59 points in 121 career games.

The Physical Game

6-1, 190, and he plays a willing game without much bulk. 12 penalty minutes in 81 games is very low for a forward who does his work in the crease.

The skating is honest and the compete is the reason he is here — undrafted out of Quinnipiac, and a regular top-6 winger inside 2 seasons.

The Intangibles

47.1 per cent of the expected goals, 29th percentile, and 44.3 per cent of the shot attempts, 8th percentile, across 1,073 minutes.

Those are poor numbers, and the plus-6 on top of them is the club finishing 10 goals above its expectation.

6 points in his last 10. He is 23, and the honest read is a genuinely good shot chart attached to some of the weakest possession work on the roster. On a club this young that is a coaching problem before it is a player problem.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

measuredcomputed here from the season's own data

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

slot-man· shoots from where goals are scored
69.7% of his attempts in the slot, 95th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.69) · 44% keep it
disciplined· stays out of the box
0.15 penalty minutes a game over 81, 6th percentile among forwards
Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it
durable· was available
81 of 82 games
Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2025-26 · 1,073 minutes

Expected goals: 47.1%; 30th pct
Shot attempts: 44.3%; 9th pct

Goals while he was on the ice: 42 for, 42 against. Expected: 40.1 and 45.1.

The eye and the numbers

Sighted

Report

61st

Numbers

30th

The report ranks him 31 points above where the numbers do. It was written with these numbers on screen and departs from them anyway, which makes the gap a judgment rather than an oversight. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 656 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 74 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2025-26 · 81 games

Top speed: 22.9 mph; 82nd pct
Bursts over 20 mph: 1.52 a game
Distance: 2.54 miles a game
Hardest shot: 78.8 mph; 18th pct

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Recent form

Last 20 appearances, 2025-26, oldest first

points in his last 10 games — 2 goals, 4 assists, 21 shots

Each bar is one game by points. Filled bars are games he scored in.

Usual linemates

2025-26 · 1073 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2025-26

The club: SJS took 47.4% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 47.1% — 0.3 below the club he did it on.
The role: First line, 1,073 minutes at five-on-five — 68th percentile in ice time.

With and without

Teammate	Together	Him apart	Mate apart
Macklin Celebrini	52.6%	42.7%	50.6%
Dmitry Orlov	46.9%	47.2%	51.2%
Mario Ferraro	47.8%	46.8%	46.5%

52.6% together, 42.7% for him apart and 50.6% for Celebrini apart. He was worse away from Celebrini, who was no better away from him — he needed that pairing more than Celebrini did.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

165 unblocked shots in 2025-26, 21 of them goals. His median goal came from 11 feet. 60% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 12% from beyond forty.