Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2025-26 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2025-26 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

15

Colin Blackwell

Dallas Stars Center

5-8, 181 pounds, 32 years old, and a fourth-liner who was on the ice for 29 goals and 21 against.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19NSH6000-1200050.09:44
2019-20NSH273710+710000319.710:57
2020-21NYR47121022+2153026418.814:00
2021-22SEA/TOR581010200140217713.011:56
2022-23CHI532810-166000533.811:48
2023-24CHI448412-210102889.114:30
2024-25DAL6361117+416020639.511:34
2025-26 so far—————————————
Career—298415091-67344538110.812:24

This Season So Far

The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

6 goals and 11 assists in 63 games for 17 points, plus-4, on 11:34 a night with 2 shorthanded goals.

50.6 per cent at five-on-five, the 58th percentile, and on-ice goals of 21-20 against an expected 21-20. That is a fourth line getting good goaltending, and it should be read that way rather than as a bottom-six forward driving results.

The Finesse Game

Quick feet and no finish. 63 shots and 6 goals, and the hands are ordinary for the level — he is on an NHL roster because of pace and effort rather than skill.

48 per cent of his attempts come from inside 20 feet, which for a man his size means he is going to places that cost him. The 2 shorthanded goals are the game in miniature: he is dangerous when the other club is careless, and not otherwise.

The Physical Game

5-8 and 181, one of the smallest players in the league, and he plays as though he does not know it. He finishes checks on men 40 pounds heavier, he blocks shots, and he gets to the net front.

16 penalty minutes over 63 games. The body has taken the price — he has not played a full season in years and has spent time on the injured list in most of them.

The Intangibles

A seventh-round pick in 2011, Harvard, seven organisations, and an NHL job at 32 that nobody handed him. He is the sort of player a coach names when asked who sets the standard in practice.

The projection is a thirteenth forward with penalty-kill value, and the risk is simply the calendar. A game built entirely on effort and pace at 5-8 does not have many years left in it.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “He finishes checks on men 40 pounds heavier, he blocks shots, and he gets to the net front.”

  • shot-blockera strength· gets in front of it

    “he blocks shots”

  • net-fronta strength· lives in the blue paint; the screens and the tips

    “he gets to the net front”

  • penalty-killera strength· trusted a man short

    “The projection is a thirteenth forward with penalty-kill value”

  • leadershipa strength· the room, and who holds it

    “He is the sort of player a coach names when asked who sets the standard in practice.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 580 minutes

Expected goals
50.6%
59th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52%
73rd pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 21 for, 20 against. Expected: 20.7 and 20.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
60th
Numbers
59th

The two rank him within 1 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 637 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 74 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2024-25 · 63 games

Top speed
23.7 mph
97th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.2

Bursts over 20 mph
1.05 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.86 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
89.0 mph
72nd pct

one shot; the league's average best is 83.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2024-25 · 580 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2024-25

The club
DAL took 50.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 50.6% — 0.1 below the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 580 minutes at five-on-five — 21st percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Oskar Bäck48.7%54.5%50.1%
Sam Steel47.0%54.7%51.3%
Esa Lindell53.3%49.1%50.2%

48.7% together, 54.5% for him apart and 50.1% for Bäck apart. He was better away from Bäck, who was no worse away from him — the pairing cost him more than it cost Bäck.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

77 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 6 of them goals. His median goal came from 13 feet. 48% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 26% from beyond forty.