Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.
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33

Adin Hill

Vegas Golden Knights Goaltender

Twenty-seven regular-season games, and then the Stanley Cup.

SeasonTeamGPWLOTLGAGAASOSASV%
2017-18ARI4130143.490129.891
2018-19ARI13750322.761322.901
2019-20ARI13243282.620343.918
2020-21ARI19991462.742530.913
2021-22SJS2510111612.662648.906
2022-23VGK271671622.500721.914
2023-24 so far——————————
Career—101453962432.6752693.910

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

16-7-1 in 27 games, .9140, 2.50, no shutouts on 721 shots.

Seven hundred and twenty-one shots is not enough to place him in this book’s thousand-shot pool, and a .9140 on that volume is a good number carrying a wide margin of error.

He was the club’s third goaltender when the season started and its starter when it ended.

Six seasons, 101 games, a career .9098 on 2,693 shots.

Vegas’s goaltending was worth plus-9.7 goals against the chances it faced, ninth in the league, across four men, of whom he played the fewest regular-season games and the most important ones.

The Finesse Game

6-4 and 222 pounds, which is large, and the game is built on it: he takes up the net rather than moving to cover it.

He plays deep and square in his crease, and against volume from distance that is efficient and unspectacular.

The rebound control is the ordinary part of the file. Pucks come off him into the slot more than a coach would like, and behind a club that gave up the twelfth-fewest chances per sixty it cost less than it might.

The glove is quick for a man that size, which is a reading rather than a measurement — this project has no data on where a save is made.

The seasons read .8915 on 129 shots, .9006 on 322, .9184 on 343, .9132 on 530, .9059 on 648 and .9140 on 721. Six seasons, 2,693 shots, a career .9098 — which is above the .9067 the league’s regulars managed last season by a shade over three tenths of a point.

That is the honest frame. He is a slightly above-average goaltender with a career’s worth of small samples, and the spring made him something else entirely.

The Intangibles

Seventy-sixth overall in 2015, the third round, six seasons, 101 games across Arizona, San Jose and Vegas, and a Stanley Cup won as the starter, after beginning the playoffs behind two other men.

45 wins, five shutouts, and a career .9098.

He is twenty-seven, and the last two months of last season are going to define how he is discussed for years.

This book has a standing position on that, and it applies here as clearly as anywhere: eighty-two games calibrate a model and a seven-game series is a stress event it never saw. Twenty-seven regular-season games and a hundred and one for a career is what the record actually contains. What happened in the spring was real and it is not a sample.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • plays-deepa strength· takes the net away by occupying it

    “He plays deep and square in his crease, and against volume from distance that is efficient and unspectacular.”

  • rebound-controlhe lacks it· where the second chance ends up

    “The rebound control is the ordinary part of the file.”

  • tracks-traffica strength· finds it through a screen

    “The glove is quick for a man that size, which is a reading rather than a measurement — this project has no data on where a save is made.”