Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

This is the 2022-23 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →

3

Olli Maatta

Detroit Red Wings Defense

Four penalty minutes in 66 games and the 4th-fewest penalties drawn of the 202 qualified defencemen — a season in which almost nothing happened.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2013-14PIT7892029+8143111197.618:30
2014-15PIT20189+110000273.720:43
2015-16PIT6761319+2722002956.319:58
2016-17PIT55167+1712000661.518:04
2017-18PIT8272229-1280031644.318:45
2018-19PIT6011314+912101741.418:35
2019-20CHI6541317020000805.018:25
2020-21LAK41044-86000430.016:26
2021-22LAK66178+1710000611.618:17
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—53430106136+701344177294.118:34

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

1 goal and 7 assists in 66 games for Los Angeles — 8 points and a plus-17 at 18:17 a night, the 33rd percentile among defencemen — with 10 penalty minutes.

51.8 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 1,078 minutes, the 65th percentile, and 52.8 per cent of the attempts, the 77th. Both are the best figures any Detroit defenceman brings into this season, and both were earned somewhere else.

His ice went 39-34 against an expectation of 44.83-41.64 — six fewer goals for and seven fewer against than the chances promised, which is how a plus-17 gets built out of an ordinary share.

The Finesse Game

3.03 shots per 60 is the 11th percentile among defencemen and one goal on 61 shots is 1.6 per cent, the 9th. 0.44 even-strength points per 60 is the 5th percentile.

No power-play time worth the name — 0:07 a night, and not one of his eight points came on it.

The median travels 51 feet and 7 per cent come from the slot. 96.3 mph is the 69th percentile, which is the one offensive number on the page that is not near the floor, and he takes 61 shots a season with it.

0.50 takeaways per 60 is the 9th percentile.

The Physical Game

6-2 and 207. 3.33 hits per 60 is the 40th percentile and 4.67 blocks is the 68th. Neither number is doing anything.

0.05 penalties drawn per 60 is the 4th-lowest of the 202 qualified defencemen, and 0.20 taken is the 8th-lowest. Ten penalty minutes in sixty-six games, and one penalty drawn all season. Nothing happens around him in either direction, and for a third-pair defenceman that is very close to the job description.

21.8 mph is the 40th percentile and 8.67 miles per 60 is the 73rd. Ordinary at both.

The Intangibles

Twenty-second overall in 2012, and 534 NHL games at 28 with a career plus-70 across four organisations.

He has been an 18-minute defenceman since he was nineteen, and the points have fallen from 29 in his first season to 8 in his ninth. The chance share has stayed roughly even the entire time, which is the case for him: nine years of not being the reason a goal went in.

Detroit was 31st in the league at suppressing chances at even strength. A third-pair defenceman who came in at 51.8 per cent last season is a low-cost answer to that, and nothing on this page suggests he is more than that.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • disciplined· stays out of the box

    0.15 penalty minutes a game over 66, 4th percentile among defencemen

    Season to season, this measure repeats well (0.75) · 35% keep it

  • defensively-responsiblea strength· comes back; can be trusted with a lead

    “Nothing happens around him in either direction, and for a third-pair defenceman that is very close to the job description.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 1,078 minutes

Expected goals
51.8%
69th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
52.8%
77th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 39 for, 34 against. Expected: 44.8 and 41.6.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
4th
Numbers
69th

The numbers rank him 65 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 47 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 66 games

Top speed
21.8 mph
58th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 21.5

Bursts over 20 mph
0.21 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.64 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
96.3 mph
79th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 90.4

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 with LAK · 1078 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
LAK took 52.8% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 51.8% — 1.0 below the club he did it on.
The role
First pair, 1,078 minutes at five-on-five — 73rd percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Matt Roy49.3%54.2%55.7%
Anze Kopitar54.7%50.6%53.4%
Alex Iafallo53.8%51.1%54.1%

49.3% together, 54.2% for him apart and 55.7% for Roy apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

86 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 1 of them goals. His median goal came from 18 feet. 6% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 79% from beyond forty.