Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2023-24 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2023-24 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

18

Filip Zadina

San Jose Sharks Right Wing

Sixth overall in 2018, twenty-eight goals in five seasons, and a fresh start at twenty-three.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2018-19DET9123-50100185.615:23
2019-20DET288715-1324016013.315:10
2020-21DET4961319-40301976.216:48
2021-22DET74101424-24104011546.514:11
2022-23DET30347-510002515.913:06
2023-24 so far—————————————
Career—190284068-512212053807.414:53

This Season So Far

The 2023-24 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

3 goals and 4 assists in 30 games — 7 points — at 13:06 a night for Detroit. Minus-5, 51 shots at 5.9 per cent, two game-winners, 10 penalty minutes.

53.5 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five across 369 minutes, the 75th percentile — the highest chance share of any forward in this chapter, on the smallest sample of any forward in it.

His ice finished 8-11 against an expectation of 14.72-12.80, which is six goals short at the good end in six games’ worth of five-on-five time.

He started 46.4 per cent of his shifts in the attacking zone, the 31st percentile.

Thirty games at thirteen minutes is not a season and the file has to be read as five of them rather than one.

The Finesse Game

51 shots at a median of 26 feet.

Inside twenty feet: 20 shots on goal and one goal. From twenty to forty: 23 shots and two goals. Beyond forty: eight shots and none.

A 5.9 per cent shooting percentage on 51 shots, against a career 7.4 across 380. That career figure is the problem and it is now five seasons long. A winger taken sixth overall for his shot has scored 28 goals in 190 games.

67 tracked attempts, only two of them slap shots, and 90.2 mph at the 44th percentile. The shot that made him a top-ten pick is, by the one measurement this book has of it, ordinary.

What the shot chart does say is that he goes to the right places: 37 per cent of his attempts from inside twenty feet and a 26-foot median for a winger playing thirteen minutes is a functional distribution. The puck is simply not going in.

The Physical Game

6-0 and 190 pounds. Top speed 21.7 mph at the 20th percentile, 0.9 bursts above twenty a game at the 48th, 2.21 miles a game at the 25th.

That is a slow tracking line and it is the least encouraging thing in this file, because it is the one part that will not improve. He was not drafted for his skating and the measurement agrees.

10 penalty minutes in 30 games and 22 in 190 career games, which is a tenth of a minute a game. He avoids contact entirely.

He does not forecheck with any conviction, which on a fourth line is the fastest way to lose the job that was left.

The Intangibles

Sixth overall in 2018, five seasons, 190 games, 68 points, all of them in Detroit.

The best season is 24 points in 74 games in 2021-22. He has never scored more than ten goals in a year and has now been given up on by the club that drafted him sixth.

He is twenty-three, which is the one genuinely hopeful fact available. A twenty-three-year-old winger with 190 NHL games and a top-ten pedigree is worth a look on a club with nothing to lose, and San Jose is exactly that club.

What the file needs is a season of fifteen minutes a night, and this is the only place he was going to get one.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • drives-play· the shot clock turns his way while he is out there

    53.5% of the expected goals at five-on-five with him on, 45.5% for his club in the minutes he sat: +8.0, 98th percentile among forwards

    Season to season, this measure repeats moderately (0.39) · 29% keep it

  • forechecks-aggressivelyhe lacks it· first man in, and on the puck

    “He does not forecheck with any conviction, which on a fourth line is the fastest way to lose the job that was left.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2022-23 · 369 minutes

Expected goals
53.5%
78th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
47.9%
37th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 8 for, 11 against. Expected: 14.7 and 12.8.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
38th
Numbers
78th

The numbers rank him 40 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 638 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 63 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2022-23 · 30 games

Top speed
21.7 mph
30th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.87 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
2.21 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
90.2 mph
67th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.9

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2022-23 with DET · 369 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2022-23

The club
DET took 46.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 53.5% — 7.3 above the club he did it on.
The role
369 minutes at five-on-five — 9th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Joe Veleno51.3%54.7%44.5%
Olli Määttä56.6%52.1%44.3%
Ben Chiarot51.6%54.4%41.5%

51.3% together, 54.7% for him apart and 44.5% for Veleno apart. He was carrying it: the share stayed with him and left Veleno behind.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

67 unblocked shots in 2022-23, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 26 feet. 37% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 18% from beyond forty.