Armchair Hockey Scout

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2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

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22

Brandon Duhaime

Minnesota Wild Right Wing

The 8th-most hits, the 3rd-most penalties taken, and the 5th-worst penalty ledger of the 393 qualified forwards.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2021-22MIN8061117-2122001916.610:13
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—8061117-2122001916.610:13

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

6 goals and 11 assists in eighty games at 10:13 a night, minus-2, 122 penalty minutes — his first NHL season, at 25, from the 106th pick of 2016.

The Finesse Game

1.33 even-strength points per 60 is the 23rd percentile and 6.6 per cent shooting the 11th, on 6.68 shots per 60 at the 38th. No power-play points at all.

48.1 per cent of the expected goals is the 35th percentile and 49.2 per cent of the attempts the 42nd. His ice went 27-27 against an expectation of 25.18-27.15 — the only Minnesota regular whose shifts did not carry a finishing surplus, which on this club is its own kind of statement.

40.3 per cent of his end-zone starts came in the attacking end — the 95th-lowest of the 652 skaters who took two hundred end-zone starts, which is a genuine mitigation for a fourth-liner.

The Physical Game

This is the report. 14.75 hits per 60 is the 8th-most of the 393 qualified forwards, in 10:13 a night.

2.57 penalties taken per 60 is the 3rd-most of 393 forwards and the net of minus 0.88 is the 5th-worst in the league. 1.69 penalties drawn per 60 is the 95th percentile, so the traffic runs in both directions and 122 penalty minutes is what came out.

Minnesota killed 5:23 a night — the heaviest short-handed workload in this batch of four clubs — and finished 15th at it. A fourth-line winger contributing at the third-highest rate in hockey is a direct and quantifiable cost.

The Intangibles

There is a measurement trap here worth naming. 1.56 miles a game is the 1st percentile of the 568 skaters who played forty — and 9.18 miles per 60 is the 15th. The per-game figure is mostly a record of playing ten minutes; the per-60 figure is what he does while out there. Neither is wrong and only one is about him.

22.8 mph is the 75th percentile and 8.9 bursts over 20 mph per 60 is the 82nd. He is quick and he sprints often.

A 25-year-old rookie fourth-liner who hits at the eighth-highest rate in the league and takes the third-most penalties. The first is worth a roster spot and the second is what will cost him one.

What kind of player

The searchable half of the report. The first group is computed from the season's own data; the rest are read out of the prose above, and each one carries the sentence that produced it. A subject the report never raised is simply absent.

  • measuredcomputed here from the season's own data
  • a strengthread out of the prose, and claimed
  • he lacks itraised, and he does not have it

Each computed tag also says how well its measure holds up from one season to the next, because a tag describes a season that has finished and a reader will assume it predicts the one coming. Some do and some do not, and the gap is wide: five-on-five workload repeats well, scoring late does not repeat at all.

  • durable· was available

    80 of 82 games

    Season to season, this measure repeats weakly (0.32) · 53% keep it

  • punishinga strength· finishes checks; hurts people legally

    “14.75 hits per 60 is the 8th-most of the 393 qualified forwards, in 10:13 a night.”

  • fouls-when-beatenhe lacks it· the stick foul that follows losing a step

    “2.57 penalties taken per 60 is the 3rd-most of 393 forwards and the net of minus 0.88 is the 5th-worst in the league.”

  • agitatora strength· gets under the skin; draws the retaliation

    “1.69 penalties drawn per 60 is the 95th percentile, so the traffic runs in both directions and 122 penalty minutes is what came out.”

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 770 minutes

Expected goals
48.1%
39th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
49.2%
48th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 27 for, 27 against. Expected: 25.2 and 27.1.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
33rd
Numbers
39th

The two rank him within 6 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 57 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 80 games

Top speed
22.8 mph
83rd pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
1.51 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.56 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
85.9 mph
44th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 770 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
MIN took 53.7% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 48.1% — 5.6 below the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 770 minutes at five-on-five — 38th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Nico Sturm47.0%49.4%51.7%
Nick Bjugstad49.3%47.2%51.5%
Dmitry Kulikov48.9%47.7%54.4%

47.0% together, 49.4% for him apart and 51.7% for Sturm apart. Sturm was better away from him while his own share held, which is a mark against him more than for him.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

113 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 6 of them goals. His median goal came from 27 feet. 35% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 21% from beyond forty.