Armchair Hockey Scout

Ask the book

2022-23 edition Ask a direct question about this edition of the book — who, how many, how common, which group more — and it is answered with a table computed on this page from the edition’s index: the season line, height and age, the on-ice percentiles, the grades and the traits read out of every report. Ask for a view on named players — what a comparison comes down to, what makes a man — and you get the book’s reading of their own pages, and only those. The model turns your question into a query and phrases the result, or reads the pages it is handed; it never originates a figure, and an answer carrying a figure that is on neither the table nor the pages is withheld. It does not forecast, and it says so when a question is outside what the book holds.

Tables are computed on this page from the 2022-23 edition’s index; readings rest on the players’ own pages; the model never counts. Twenty questions an hour.

24

Brett Ritchie

Calgary Flames Right Wing

Forty-one games, 9:43 a night, and four points from a 6-4 winger in his eighth season.

SeasonTeamGPGAPTS+/-PIMPPSHGWSS%TOI
2014-15DAL31639-112001787.713:59
2015-16DAL8011-37000150.011:36
2016-17DAL7816824+11381021679.612:54
2017-18DAL717714+1422001176.010:50
2018-19DAL53426-757102577.09:36
2019-20BOS27246-321001345.910:24
2020-21CGY32448-5240003611.111:22
2021-22CGY41314-629000555.59:43
2022-23 so far—————————————
Career—341423072-132304065597.511:18

This Season So Far

The 2022-23 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.

Last Season

3 goals and 1 assist in 41 games — 4 points at 9:43 a night, minus-6, with 29 penalty minutes.

57.2 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 405 minutes. His ice went 13-19 against an expectation of 18.89-14.15 — six fewer goals for than the chances promised and five more against, in a sample small enough that both are noise.

Four hundred and five minutes is below the 500 this book requires before it will rank a player against the league, so no percentiles are quoted here.

The Finesse Game

Fifty-five shots and three goals, from a median of 28 feet with 26 per cent from the slot. Four points in 41 games is the least productive season of an eight-year career.

His best year was 24 points in 78 games for Dallas at 23, and nothing since has come close.

The Physical Game

6-4 and 215, with 29 penalty minutes in 41 games and 230 in 341 career games. He is a heavy fourth-line winger and that is the entire job description.

1.60 miles a game is the lowest figure on this roster. Nine minutes a night on a fourth line does not cover ground, and the number is a shift-count artefact as much as a description of how he skates.

The Intangibles

Forty-fourth overall in 2011 by Dallas, and 341 NHL games at 29 with 72 points.

He is on his third club and his third one-year arrangement in three years. On a roster that has lost 230 points of forward and replaced them with two men, the thirteenth forward’s job is to be available and not cost anything.

The numbers underneath

On the ice

Five-on-five, 2021-22 · 405 minutes

Expected goals
57.2%
95th pct

share of the chances while he was out there

Shot attempts
56.8%
95th pct

share of the attempts while he was out there

Goals while he was on the ice: 13 for, 19 against. Expected: 18.9 and 14.2.

The eye and the numbers

Hindsight
Report
13th
Numbers
95th

The numbers rank him 82 points above where the report does. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.

Both bars are percentiles among the 649 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 52 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.

Tracked

NHL Edge, 2021-22 · 41 games

Top speed
21.9 mph
37th pct

fastest he was clocked all season; the league's average best is 22.0

Bursts over 20 mph
0.73 a game

how often he reaches that speed, not how fast he goes

Distance
1.60 miles a game

skated, all strengths

Hardest shot
87.8 mph
54th pct

one shot; the league's average best is 84.1

A top speed is a season's best, and a man who takes more shifts gets more tries at one; the percentile is the feed's own, against every skater, and says less between a top-pair defenceman and a fourth-line wing than it does between two men in the same job. The counts are shown per game for the same reason.

Usual linemates

2021-22 · 405 minutes at five-on-five

Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.

Why the numbers land there

Five-on-five, 2021-22

The club
CGY took 55.2% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 57.2% — 2.0 above the club he did it on.
The role
Fourth line, 405 minutes at five-on-five — 13th percentile in ice time.

With and without

TeammateTogetherHim apartMate apart
Milan Lucic60.6%55.2%48.2%
Dillon Dube57.2%57.2%52.5%
Erik Gudbranson56.3%57.6%53.5%

60.6% together, 55.2% for him apart and 48.2% for Lucic apart. Both were worse apart, so whatever the two of them had together was doing real work.

Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.

Where he shoots from

goal on goal missed

74 unblocked shots in 2021-22, 3 of them goals. His median goal came from 19 feet. 26% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 23% from beyond forty.