This is the 2025-26 edition — an archived read. Read the 2026-27 report →
Mattias Samuelsson
Buffalo Sabres Defense
6-4, 229 pounds, 62 games, and a 45.3 per cent chance share on a long contract.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | BUF | 12 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0.0 | 18:02 |
| 2021-22 | BUF | 42 | 0 | 10 | 10 | -10 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 44 | 0.0 | 20:00 |
| 2022-23 | BUF | 55 | 2 | 8 | 10 | +14 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 76 | 2.6 | 22:11 |
| 2023-24 | BUF | 41 | 1 | 6 | 7 | +4 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 44 | 2.3 | 20:30 |
| 2024-25 | BUF | 62 | 4 | 10 | 14 | +3 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 52 | 7.7 | 19:18 |
| 2025-26 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 212 | 7 | 36 | 43 | +3 | 88 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 226 | 3.1 | 20:21 |
This Season So Far
The 2025-26 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
4 goals and 10 assists in 62 games for 14 points, plus-3, on 19:18 a night.
45.3 per cent at five-on-five, the 15th percentile, over 920 minutes — the worst share among the club’s regular defencemen. His on-ice goals were 40-48 against an expected 33-40.
The Finesse Game
Very little. 52 shots in 62 games with 69 per cent of them from beyond 40 feet, and a first pass that is safe and slow.
The puck leaves his stick without incident and does not start anything, which on a blue line with three genuine puck-movers is an acceptable division of labour and does not excuse a 15th-percentile share.
The Physical Game
6-4 and 229, and this is the entire case for him. He clears the crease, boxes out, and is difficult to get through in front of the net.
22 penalty minutes over 62 games is disciplined for the style. The availability is the problem: he has cleared 70 games once in five seasons, and the club signed him long before finding that out.
The Intangibles
A second-round pick who was excellent at 21, signed a seven-year contract, and has not been that player since.
At 25 with most of the deal still to run, this is now one of the more difficult contracts on the roster. There is a useful shutdown defenceman in there; there is also a 15th-percentile season and a body that has not held up.
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2024-25 · 920 minutes
- Expected goals
- 45.3%
- 15th pct
- Shot attempts
- 45.9%
- 16th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 40 for, 48 against. Expected: 33.4 and 40.4.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe two rank him within 3 points of one another. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason.
Both bars are percentiles among the 357 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 66 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Usual linemates
2024-25 · 920 minutes at five-on-five
- Owen Power34%
- Connor Cliftonnow PIT20%
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2024-25
- The club
- BUF took 47.9% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 45.3% — 2.6 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- Second pair, 920 minutes at five-on-five — 49th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Power | 43.1% | 46.5% | 49.7% |
| Rasmus Dahlin | 46.7% | 44.7% | 54.5% |
| Ryan McLeod | 47.2% | 44.4% | 46.1% |
43.1% together, 46.5% for him apart and 49.7% for Power apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
78 unblocked shots in 2024-25, 4 of them goals. His median goal came from 37 feet. 5% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 69% from beyond forty.