Julien Gauthier
New York Islanders Right Wing
Twenty-first overall in 2016, a career minus-25 in 180 games, and the worst chance share on this roster.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | PP | SH | GW | S | S% | TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | CAR/NYR | 17 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0.0 | 8:17 |
| 2020-21 | NYR | 30 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -6 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 5.3 | 9:39 |
| 2021-22 | NYR | 49 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -9 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 69 | 4.3 | 10:18 |
| 2022-23 | NYR/OTT | 57 | 9 | 5 | 14 | -6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 17.0 | 8:38 |
| 2023-24 | NYI | 27 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 15.6 | 10:10 |
| 2024-25 so far | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Career | — | 180 | 19 | 22 | 41 | -25 | 44 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 202 | 9.4 | 9:27 |
This Season So Far
The 2024-25 season has not started. The empty row above is his, and both it and this paragraph fill in on their own from the morning after he first plays: what he has done, what it is worth against his own last season, and the run he is on when the two disagree.
Last Season
27 games, 5 goals and 4 assists for 9 points, 8 penalty minutes, 10:10 a night and minus-5. He took 36.5 per cent of the expected goals at five-on-five over 272 minutes, and his ice went 9-14 against an expectation of 6.59-11.44.
Two goals of finishing above what the chances were worth and three more conceded than they called for. That 36.5 per cent is the worst chance share of anybody on this roster by six points, and 272 minutes is a small enough sample that it should be read carefully — but a fourth-liner on the twenty-fifth shot share in hockey is not a good place to be.
The Finesse Game
43 attempts at a median of 33 feet, 32 on goal, converted at 15.6 per cent against a career 9.41.
22 career assists in 180 games. Five goals in twenty-seven games flatters him; forty-three attempts from thirty-three feet is a fourth-liner shooting from the wrong places. There is no playmaking at all.
The Physical Game
He hits hard at 6-4 and 230 and finishes every check.
44 career penalty minutes in 180 games is a low rate for a man that size. He forechecks aggressively and wins the wall, and he does not fight or take liberties.
The Intangibles
Twenty-first overall in 2016 out of Pointe-aux-Trembles, five seasons across three organisations, and 41 points in 180 games at a career minus-25.
He is 27 and the skating at that size is the only reason he is still in the league. A first-round pick with forty-one points in a hundred and eighty games is a thirteenth forward.
The numbers underneath
On the ice
Five-on-five, 2023-24 · 272 minutes
- Expected goals
- 36.5%
- 1st pct
- Shot attempts
- 36.6%
- 0th pct
share of the chances while he was out there
share of the attempts while he was out there
Goals while he was on the ice: 9 for, 14 against. Expected: 6.6 and 11.4.
The eye and the numbers
HindsightThe report ranks him 34 points above where the numbers do. It was written for a back edition, with the seasons that followed already known. Neither the agreement nor the gap says anything about the eye, and this report is excluded from the club-level comparison for the same reason. Why the numbers land there sets out the club he did it on, the minutes he played and the men he played them with.
Both bars are percentiles among the 437 skaters in this edition with a report and enough ice time. The report bar ranks the mean of the grades above — 63 on their own scale — against every other report's mean. The numbers bar ranks his share of expected goals. A gap is a disagreement about where he belongs, not two scales talking past each other.
Usual linemates
2023-24 · 272 minutes at five-on-five
Share of his five-on-five ice time spent alongside each player, measured from shift charts. Special teams are excluded: a power-play unit is not a line.
Why the numbers land there
Five-on-five, 2023-24
- The club
- NYI took 49.1% of the expected goals as a club. His own share is 36.5% — 12.6 below the club he did it on.
- The role
- Fourth line, 272 minutes at five-on-five — 4th percentile in ice time.
With and without
| Teammate | Together | Him apart | Mate apart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 30.0% | 50.1% | 47.3% |
| Simon Holmstrom | 32.4% | 43.2% | 45.1% |
| Alexander Romanov | 33.7% | 38.6% | 49.5% |
30.0% together, 50.1% for him apart and 47.3% for Pageau apart. Both were better apart than together — the pairing was doing neither of them any favours.
Expected-goal share while both were on the ice, and for each man in the minutes he played without the other. Apart is the pair subtracted from his own totals. It does not settle who was carrying whom — apart from each other, both were still playing with somebody — but it does say whether the share travelled when the pairing broke up.
Where he shoots from
goal on goal missed
43 unblocked shots in 2023-24, 5 of them goals. His median goal came from 31 feet. 28% of his shots came from inside twenty feet, 26% from beyond forty.